ARI at ATL

ATL is the better team (73-48, .789 OPS vs ARI's .564) and at home, so the model's 65% lean is directionally fine. But the Braves starter is TBD wi...

Cole (3.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.71 K/9 over 80.7 IP) is a clear step above Bieber (5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP in 42.7 IP), and the model's 61.4% on NYY is cl...

Fading the model here: it takes NYM despite a worse record (53-69 vs 60-63) and worse offense (.736 vs .820 OPS), the exact offense_defense_mismatc...

Model 59.1% vs market 54.8% on SFG is a modest, defensible gap. Roupp (4.22 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) is the clear comparison over Freeland (6.63 ERA, 1.50 W...

Boston has the better record (65-56), far better scoring (6.4 vs 3.9 RPG) and the better starter in Bennett (3.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) against Chandler'...

Model favors BAL despite a 58-63 record, 3.6 RPG and .662 OPS against a 74-46 Tampa club scoring 6.6 per game with .802 OPS — a clear offense/defen...