CIN at ATL

ATL is the right side: 93-65 with .789 OPS and 4.8 RPG against a Cincinnati offense at 2.8 RPG and .629 OPS, with Singer carrying a 5.67 ERA and 1....

Market (65.7%) is more bullish on Seattle than the model (59.2%), and the pitching comparison supports the market: Woo at 3.92 ERA/1.08 WHIP over 1...

Side agrees with market and model: Rodriguez (2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 183.2 IP) is a clear comparison over Gordon (6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), and ARI's...

Model has NYM at 56.9% vs market's 45.9% implied — an 11-point gap on a team that is 73-85 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game despite a .736 OPS. T...

Market prices CHC at 65.3% while the model says 56.7%; -200 looks steep with Miami carrying the better offense (.774 OPS vs .694) and the better st...

Suarez (143.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) is far more established than Espino, who has just 2 starts and 13.1 IP with a 1.43 WHIP despite 14.85 K/9. M...

Essentially a coin flip: model has MIL at 50.4%, market implies 53.4% PHI. Milwaukee's 99-59 record and 4.8 RPG outclass Philadelphia's offense, an...

Model's 54.5% on OAK vs market's 40.3% is a 14-point gap I can't justify: Barnett carries a 7.16 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over 44 IP against Lambert's 3.7...

Model picks KCR despite a 13-game worse record and 4.0 RPG vs CHW's 5.7 with .729 OPS — the mismatch flag is a red flag. Dobnak's 3.08 ERA over 73...