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MLB moneyline board.
Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.
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Model badly underweights the ace matchup and extreme pitcher's park. Hancock (0.00 ERA, 13.5 K/9 in 6 IP) and Ginn (0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP) are both de...
Model has WSN at 57.5% but market implies ATL 59.3%—a 16.8pp gap. ATL is 15-7 with 6.4 RPG vs WSN 10-12 at 5.0 RPG. Elder's missing stats are conce...
Model favors DET 57.4% vs market's 45.2% (DET +117). Gray's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP and Flaherty's 4.15 ERA in 4.1 IP are both tiny samples. BOS offense...
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Market has LAD at 71.6% implied, model at 57.4%. Coors Field (PF 1.47) drives model total to 9.41 vs market 11.5—a 2-run gap. Model systematically...
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Model badly underweights the ace matchup and extreme pitcher's park. Hancock (0.00 ERA, 13.5 K/9 in 6 IP) and Ginn (0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP) are both dealing in T-Mobile Pa...
Model has WSN at 57.5% but market implies ATL 59.3%—a 16.8pp gap. ATL is 15-7 with 6.4 RPG vs WSN 10-12 at 5.0 RPG. Elder's missing stats are concerning but ATL's offe...
Model predicts 9.21 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.71-run gap triggers structural concern. Cease (1.69 ERA, 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP) is elite early but tiny sample. Detmers' 17.36...
Market has LAD at 71.6% implied, model at 57.4%. Coors Field (PF 1.47) drives model total to 9.41 vs market 11.5—a 2-run gap. Model systematically underweights Coors i...
Model favors STL 55.7% but market has MIA at 54%. McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is a 1-start outlier, not a skill signal. Meyer's 5.40 ERA more reflective of true talent...
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Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context
Model badly underweights the ace matchup and extreme pitcher's park. Hancock (0.00 ERA, 13.5 K/9 in 6 IP) and Ginn (0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP) are both de...
Model has WSN at 57.5% but market implies ATL 59.3%—a 16.8pp gap. ATL is 15-7 with 6.4 RPG vs WSN 10-12 at 5.0 RPG. Elder's missing stats are conce...
Model favors DET 57.4% vs market's 45.2% (DET +117). Gray's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP and Flaherty's 4.15 ERA in 4.1 IP are both tiny samples. BOS offense...
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Market has LAD at 71.6% implied, model at 57.4%. Coors Field (PF 1.47) drives model total to 9.41 vs market 11.5—a 2-run gap. Model systematically...
Model favors STL 55.7% but market has MIA at 54%. McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is a 1-start outlier, not a skill signal. Meyer's 5.40 ERA more refle...
Model predicts 9.21 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.71-run gap triggers structural concern. Cease (1.69 ERA, 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP) is elite early but tiny sa...
Away pitcher data is fallback quality and home pitcher Cecconi has 12.46 ERA in just 4.1 IP this season. Model predicts 9.06 runs vs market 7.5, a...
TBD starter for TBR is a structural hole; model is essentially blind to half the pitching matchup. Market disagrees with model's CIN lean (market h...
Model has CHC at 54.7%, market is dead even (49.8% vs 50.2%). Significant data gaps: Colin Rea's IP/ERA/K9/WHIP all null despite 10 starts. CHC off...