MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-04-21 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-04-21
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-106
LAALos Angeles Angels-112
Pick Probability59%TOR moneyline
TORPatrick Corbin
LAAJack Kochanowicz
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model likes TOR at 58.6% vs market's coin-flip 50.8%. Corbin's 1.69 ERA is fallback data—cannot trust. Kochanowicz's 11.25 ERA in 4.0 IP is tiny sa...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+120
CLECleveland Guardians-143
Pick Probability58%CLE moneyline
HOURyan Weiss
CLEParker Messick
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 6

Weiss has 1.0 IP this season—functionally no data. Model overweights his walk rate in that single inning. CLE implied at 58% vs market 57% is negli...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+150
NYMNew York Mets-183
Pick Probability58%NYM moneyline
MINSimeon Woods Richardson
NYMNolan McLean
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
NYM / pass confidence / Rank 8

Woods Richardson has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP/K9), triggering structural uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. NYM offense is deeply broken (...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+100
TEXTexas Rangers-120
Pick Probability58%TEX moneyline
PITCarmen Mlodzinski
TEXKumar Rocker
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+132
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-156
Pick Probability58%ARI moneyline
CHWSean Burke
ARIMerrill Kelly
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-04-21

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-106
LAALos Angeles Angels-112
Pick Probability59%TOR moneyline
TORPatrick Corbin
LAAJack Kochanowicz
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model likes TOR at 58.6% vs market's coin-flip 50.8%. Corbin's 1.69 ERA is fallback data—cannot trust. Kochanowicz's 11.25 ERA in 4.0 IP is tiny sa...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+120
CLECleveland Guardians-143
Pick Probability58%CLE moneyline
HOURyan Weiss
CLEParker Messick
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 6

Weiss has 1.0 IP this season—functionally no data. Model overweights his walk rate in that single inning. CLE implied at 58% vs market 57% is negli...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+150
NYMNew York Mets-183
Pick Probability58%NYM moneyline
MINSimeon Woods Richardson
NYMNolan McLean
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
NYM / pass confidence / Rank 8

Woods Richardson has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP/K9), triggering structural uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. NYM offense is deeply broken (...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+100
TEXTexas Rangers-120
Pick Probability58%TEX moneyline
PITCarmen Mlodzinski
TEXKumar Rocker
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+132
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-156
Pick Probability58%ARI moneyline
CHWSean Burke
ARIMerrill Kelly
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds-110
TBRTampa Bay Rays-108
Pick Probability57%CIN moneyline
CINChase Burns
TBRSteven Matz
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
CIN / pass confidence / Rank 9

Chase Burns has no season stats; Matz ERA 7.20 in 5 IP is tiny sample. Model total 9.30 vs market 7.5 is a 1.8-run gap flagged as structural miss....

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+110
KCRKansas City Royals-130
Pick Probability57%BAL moneyline
BALShane Baz
KCRKris Bubic
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
BAL / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model favors BAL 57.4% vs market's 46% (implied from +114). KCR offense is league-worst at 3.1 RPG/.518 OPS through 23 games. Bubic's missing stats...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+145
SEASeattle Mariners-172
Pick Probability56%OAK moneyline
OAKJacob Lopez
SEALuis Castillo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market heavily favors SEA at 61.1% implied while model leans OAK at 55.7%. T-Mobile extreme pitcher park (0.855 PF) argues for run suppression. Mod...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-186
SFGSan Francisco Giants+155
Pick Probability55%LAD moneyline
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
SFGLanden Roupp
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
LAD / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has LAD 55.2%, market at 64% (~-178). Model underweights LAD's 16-6 record and 5.8 RPG vs SFG's 3.9 RPG with .388 OPS. Oracle Park (PF 0.906)...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-103
MIAMiami Marlins-115
Pick Probability54%MIA moneyline
STLDustin May
MIAChris Paddack
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
MIA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+100
CHCChicago Cubs-119
Pick Probability54%CHC moneyline
PHIJesús Luzardo
CHCShota Imanaga
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
CHC moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-145
COLColorado Rockies+120
Pick Probability53%SDP moneyline
SDPRandy Vásquez
COLJimmy Herget
Market OddsPregame
Market Total11.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
SDP / lean confidence / Agrees with model

Model has SDP 58.6%, market implies 56.6% — close alignment. COL pitcher is TBD with 4.1 IP fallback data; structural uncertainty dominates. Coors...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-105
DETDetroit Tigers-115
Pick Probability52%MIL moneyline
MILKyle Harrison
DETKeider Montero
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
MIL / pass confidence / Rank 7

Montero's pitcher data is fallback (4.1 IP across 10 starts is incoherent), Harrison has no resolved stats. Model has MIL at 52.2% vs market 48.9%—...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-140
WSNWashington Nationals+118
Pick Probability52%ATL moneyline
ATLReynaldo López
WSNFoster Griffin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-110
BOSBoston Red Sox-108
Pick Probability51%BOS moneyline
NYYLuis Gil
BOSConnelly Early
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
BOS moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.