MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-22 / 14 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-22
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+185
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-225
Pick Probability65%ARI moneyline
COLTomoyuki Sugano
ARIMichael Soroka
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.8
AI Analyst
ARI / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model (64.8%) and market (64.9%) converge tightly on ARI. Both pitchers lack ERA/IP data despite 10 starts each—unusual but not flagged as fallback...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays+124
NYYNew York Yankees-147
Pick Probability60%NYY moneyline
TBRNick Martinez
NYYGerrit Cole
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 10 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks NYY at 60.2% vs market's 58%, but TBR has superior record (33-15) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Offense_defense...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-108
MILMilwaukee Brewers-111
Pick Probability60%MIL moneyline
LADJustin Wrobleski
MILLogan Henderson
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
MIL / pass confidence / Rank 12

Model has MIL 60% vs market coin flip. Large disagreement flag + offense_defense_mismatch both fire. LAD superior offense (5.4 RPG, .743 OPS vs 4.6...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+123
CHCChicago Cubs-147
Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline
HOUSpencer Arrighetti
CHCJameson Taillon
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model has CHC 58% vs market 57%, essentially convergent. Model total of 8.84 runs is 1.84 above market 7.0—a structural red flag. Pitcher stats are...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+139
TORToronto Blue Jays-164
Pick Probability58%TOR moneyline
PITBubba Chandler
TORKevin Gausman
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
TOR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-22
Rank#1
CLE at PHICleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies
AI Analyst PickPHIstrong confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCLE / 52%Model pick probability

Model has CLE at 52% while Pinnacle implies PHI 63% — a massive 11-point gap favoring the home side. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 60 IP with 0.50 WHIP is elite; Williams' 5.4...

Rank#2
TEX at LAATexas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
AI Analyst PickTEXlean confidence
Agrees with modelTEX / 55%Model pick probability

Model sees TEX at 55.2%, market implies 60.8% — rare case where market is more confident than model. deGrom at Angel Stadium (neutral park) argues for run suppression....

Rank#3
MIN at BOSMinnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
AI Analyst PickMINlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelBOS / 54%Model pick probability

Model likes BOS at 53.6% but market has them at 58.6% — a 5pp gap favoring MIN. BOS offense is league-worst at 2.6 RPG despite Fenway boost. MIN at 4.1 RPG is material...

Rank#4
COL at ARIColorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
AI Analyst PickARIlean confidence
Agrees with modelARI / 65%Model pick probability

Model (64.8%) and market (64.9%) converge tightly on ARI. Both pitchers lack ERA/IP data despite 10 starts each—unusual but not flagged as fallback. COL's 3.6 RPG road...

Rank#5
CHW at SFGChicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants
AI Analyst PickCHWlean confidence
Agrees with modelCHW / 56%Model pick probability

Market is a coin flip (CHW -105). Model has CHW at 55.7%, slight comparison but not exploitable. Model predicts 8.91 total vs market 7.0 — a 1.91 run gap. Oracle Park...

Rank#6
OAK at SDPOakland Athletics at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickSDPlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelOAK / 55%Model pick probability

Model has OAK 55.2%, market has SDP 54.6% — nearly a coin flip with large disagreement flag. Petco PF 0.962 plus Buehler's null stats (data_quality full but no ERA/IP/...

Rank#7
HOU at CHCHouston Astros at Chicago Cubs
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Agrees with modelCHC / 58%Model pick probability

Model has CHC 58% vs market 57%, essentially convergent. Model total of 8.84 runs is 1.84 above market 7.0—a structural red flag. Pitcher stats are null for both sides...

Rank#8
SEA at KCRSeattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
AI Analyst PickSEAlean confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 53%Model pick probability

Model has SEA 53.1%, market 54.6% — tight convergence. Noah Cameron's missing stats are concerning; full data_quality but null ERA/IP suggests incomplete tracking. Gil...

Rank#9
DET at BALDetroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
AI Analyst PickBALlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelBAL / 58%Model pick probability

Market favors BAL at 55.9% while model leans DET at 52.2% - classic disagreement scenario. BAL offense (3.6 RPG, .662 OPS) significantly stronger than DET (2.1 RPG, .5...

Rank#10
TBR at NYYTampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelNYY / 60%Model pick probability

Model picks NYY at 60.2% vs market's 58%, but TBR has superior record (33-15) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Offense_defense_mismatch flag fires...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

14 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+185
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-225
Pick Probability65%ARI moneyline
COLTomoyuki Sugano
ARIMichael Soroka
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.8
AI Analyst
ARI / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model (64.8%) and market (64.9%) converge tightly on ARI. Both pitchers lack ERA/IP data despite 10 starts each—unusual but not flagged as fallback...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays+124
NYYNew York Yankees-147
Pick Probability60%NYY moneyline
TBRNick Martinez
NYYGerrit Cole
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 10 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks NYY at 60.2% vs market's 58%, but TBR has superior record (33-15) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Offense_defense...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-108
MILMilwaukee Brewers-111
Pick Probability60%MIL moneyline
LADJustin Wrobleski
MILLogan Henderson
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
MIL / pass confidence / Rank 12

Model has MIL 60% vs market coin flip. Large disagreement flag + offense_defense_mismatch both fire. LAD superior offense (5.4 RPG, .743 OPS vs 4.6...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+123
CHCChicago Cubs-147
Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline
HOUSpencer Arrighetti
CHCJameson Taillon
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model has CHC 58% vs market 57%, essentially convergent. Model total of 8.84 runs is 1.84 above market 7.0—a structural red flag. Pitcher stats are...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+139
TORToronto Blue Jays-164
Pick Probability58%TOR moneyline
PITBubba Chandler
TORKevin Gausman
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
TOR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+160
ATLAtlanta Braves-195
Pick Probability58%ATL moneyline
WSNRichard Lovelady
ATLBryce Elder
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+112
BALBaltimore Orioles-132
Pick Probability58%BAL moneyline
DETJack Flaherty
BALKeegan Akin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
BAL / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market favors BAL at 55.9% while model leans DET at 52.2% - classic disagreement scenario. BAL offense (3.6 RPG, .662 OPS) significantly stronger t...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox-118
SFGSan Francisco Giants-102
Pick Probability56%CHW moneyline
CHWDavis Martin
SFGTrevor McDonald
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Market is a coin flip (CHW -105). Model has CHW at 55.7%, slight comparison but not exploitable. Model predicts 8.91 total vs market 7.0 — a 1.91 r...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-160
LAALos Angeles Angels+135
Pick Probability55%TEX moneyline
TEXJacob deGrom
LAAGrayson Rodriguez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
TEX / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model sees TEX at 55.2%, market implies 60.8% — rare case where market is more confident than model. deGrom at Angel Stadium (neutral park) argues...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+107
SDPSan Diego Padres-126
Pick Probability55%OAK moneyline
OAKJeffrey Springs
SDPWalker Buehler
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
SDP / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has OAK 55.2%, market has SDP 54.6% — nearly a coin flip with large disagreement flag. Petco PF 0.962 plus Buehler's null stats (data_quality...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+129
BOSBoston Red Sox-152
Pick Probability54%BOS moneyline
MINConnor Prielipp
BOSPayton Tolle
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
MIN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model likes BOS at 53.6% but market has them at 58.6% — a 5pp gap favoring MIN. BOS offense is league-worst at 2.6 RPG despite Fenway boost. MIN at...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-115
KCRKansas City Royals-104
Pick Probability53%SEA moneyline
SEALogan Gilbert
KCRNoah Cameron
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model has SEA 53.1%, market 54.6% — tight convergence. Noah Cameron's missing stats are concerning; full data_quality but null ERA/IP suggests inco...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+153
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-185
Pick Probability52%CLE moneyline
CLEGavin Williams
PHICristopher Sánchez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total6.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
PHI / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has CLE at 52% while Pinnacle implies PHI 63% — a massive 11-point gap favoring the home side. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 60 IP with 0.50 WHIP is...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-103
MIAMiami Marlins-114
Pick Probability52%NYM moneyline
NYMTobias Myers
MIAEury Pérez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.