MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-09-18 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-09-18
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+195
CLECleveland Guardians-238
Pick Probability71%CLE moneyline
OAKMason BarnettConfirmed
CLEDaniel EspinoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.1
Margin Context1.8
AI Analyst
CLE / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

CLE is the clear side: 78-75 vs 61-92, 5.4 RPG against OAK's 3.0, and Barnett's 7.08 ERA/1.62 WHIP over 40.7 IP is a soft matchup. Model's 70.6% is...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+170
SDPSan Diego Padres-205
Pick Probability71%SDP moneyline
MIATyler PhillipsConfirmed
SDPNick PivettaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context1.9
AI Analyst
SDP / standard confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model at 70.6% on SDP vs market's 63.9% implied — directionally aligned, so take the side without stretching. Petco's 0.962 park factor plus two st...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+259
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-322
Pick Probability71%LAD moneyline
SFGCesar PerdomoConfirmed
LADTyler GlasnowConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.9
AI Analyst
LAD / standard confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model (70.6%) and market (72.7%) essentially agree on LAD, so no comparison to exploit but the side is sound: Glasnow's 0.97 WHIP and 11.24 K/9 aga...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox+115
TBRTampa Bay Rays-138
Pick Probability58%TBR moneyline
BOSRanger SuarezConfirmed
TBRIan SeymourConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.0
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
TBR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+103
NYMNew York Mets-123
Pick Probability58%NYM moneyline
PHITim MayzaConfirmed
NYMZac ThorntonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-09-18
Rank#1
OAK at CLEOakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians
AI Analyst PickCLEstandard confidence
Agrees with modelCLE / 71%Model pick probability

CLE is the clear side: 78-75 vs 61-92, 5.4 RPG against OAK's 3.0, and Barnett's 7.08 ERA/1.62 WHIP over 40.7 IP is a soft matchup. Model's 70.6% is aggressive versus m...

Rank#2
MIL at BALMilwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles
AI Analyst PickMILstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelBAL / 56%Model pick probability

Model's 51.9% on BAL is hard to justify: Milwaukee is 95-58 with 7.4 RPG and a .972 OPS against Baltimore's 75-78 and .662 OPS, and the Orioles' starter is TBD with on...

Rank#3
SEA at COLSeattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickSEAstandard confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 58%Model pick probability

SEA is the clear side: .793 OPS and 5.7 RPG against COL's .531 OPS and 3.8 RPG, with Woo (3.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.04 K/9) opposite a TBD arm proxied at 6.01 ERA/1.55 WH...

Rank#4
SFG at LADSan Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
AI Analyst PickLADstandard confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 71%Model pick probability

Model (70.6%) and market (72.7%) essentially agree on LAD, so no comparison to exploit but the side is sound: Glasnow's 0.97 WHIP and 11.24 K/9 against a Perdomo with...

Rank#5
MIA at SDPMiami Marlins at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickSDPstandard confidence
Agrees with modelSDP / 71%Model pick probability

Model at 70.6% on SDP vs market's 63.9% implied — directionally aligned, so take the side without stretching. Petco's 0.962 park factor plus two starters at 3.55-3.60...

Rank#6
NYY at ARINew York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks
AI Analyst PickNYYstandard confidence
Agrees with modelNYY / 55%Model pick probability

Model (54.9% NYY) and market (-122, ~54.7%) agree, so the side is consensus: NYY's 5.4 RPG and .692 OPS clearly outclass Arizona's 4.5 RPG and .564 OPS. The 9.02 total...

Rank#7
KCR at PITKansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
AI Analyst PickPITstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelKCR / 54%Model pick probability

Model takes KCR at 53.9% against a market implying 63.4% home, and it is picking the team with the worse record (67-86) and far worse offense (.518 OPS, 3.2 RPG) while...

Rank#8
CHC at CINChicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
AI Analyst PickCHCstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCIN / 56%Model pick probability

Model has CIN at 55.5% vs market's 45.7% implied — a ~10-point gap with no clear justification, and it's backing the team with the worse record (71-82) and far worse o...

Rank#9
ATL at HOUAtlanta Braves at Houston Astros
AI Analyst PickATLstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelHOU / 53%Model pick probability

Model leans HOU at 53.3% while market implies 47.8%, and the offense_defense_mismatch flag fits: ATL is 89-64 with a .789 OPS versus Houston's 77-76 and .695 OPS on 3....

Rank#10
MIN at LAAMinnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
AI Analyst PickLAAlean confidence
Agrees with modelLAA / 51%Model pick probability

Model (50.9%) and market (46.9%) are close; this is near a coin flip. Minnesota's 3.0 RPG and .673 OPS is the weakest input here, which supports taking LAA at plus mon...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+195
CLECleveland Guardians-238
Pick Probability71%CLE moneyline
OAKMason BarnettConfirmed
CLEDaniel EspinoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.1
Margin Context1.8
AI Analyst
CLE / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

CLE is the clear side: 78-75 vs 61-92, 5.4 RPG against OAK's 3.0, and Barnett's 7.08 ERA/1.62 WHIP over 40.7 IP is a soft matchup. Model's 70.6% is...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+170
SDPSan Diego Padres-205
Pick Probability71%SDP moneyline
MIATyler PhillipsConfirmed
SDPNick PivettaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context1.9
AI Analyst
SDP / standard confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model at 70.6% on SDP vs market's 63.9% implied — directionally aligned, so take the side without stretching. Petco's 0.962 park factor plus two st...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+259
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-322
Pick Probability71%LAD moneyline
SFGCesar PerdomoConfirmed
LADTyler GlasnowConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.9
AI Analyst
LAD / standard confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model (70.6%) and market (72.7%) essentially agree on LAD, so no comparison to exploit but the side is sound: Glasnow's 0.97 WHIP and 11.24 K/9 aga...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox+115
TBRTampa Bay Rays-138
Pick Probability58%TBR moneyline
BOSRanger SuarezConfirmed
TBRIan SeymourConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.0
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
TBR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+103
NYMNew York Mets-123
Pick Probability58%NYM moneyline
PHITim MayzaConfirmed
NYMZac ThorntonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-186
COLColorado Rockies+156
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
SEABryan WooConfirmed
COLGabriel HughesConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total10.5
Projected Total11.5
Margin Context1.7
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

SEA is the clear side: .793 OPS and 5.7 RPG against COL's .531 OPS and 3.8 RPG, with Woo (3.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.04 K/9) opposite a TBD arm proxied...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-139
TEXTexas Rangers+117
Pick Probability57%TOR moneyline
TORDylan CeaseConfirmed
TEXKumar RockerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context1.5
Model pick
TOR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-150
CINCincinnati Reds+125
Pick Probability56%CIN moneyline
CHCClay HolmesConfirmed
CINChase BurnsConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
CHC / standard confidence / Rank 8 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has CIN at 55.5% vs market's 45.7% implied — a ~10-point gap with no clear justification, and it's backing the team with the worse record (71...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-149
BALBaltimore Orioles+123
Pick Probability56%BAL moneyline
MILDustin MayConfirmed
BALCade PovichConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
MIL / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model's 51.9% on BAL is hard to justify: Milwaukee is 95-58 with 7.4 RPG and a .972 OPS against Baltimore's 75-78 and .662 OPS, and the Orioles' st...

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+110
CHWChicago White Sox-132
Pick Probability56%CHW moneyline
DETAndrew SearsConfirmed
CHWDavid SandlinConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.6
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
CHW moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals-111
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-106
Pick Probability56%STL moneyline
WSNCade CavalliConfirmed
STLKyle LeahyConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
STL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-105
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-114
Pick Probability55%NYY moneyline
NYYGerrit ColeConfirmed
ARIEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
NYY / standard confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model (54.9% NYY) and market (-122, ~54.7%) agree, so the side is consensus: NYY's 5.4 RPG and .692 OPS clearly outclass Arizona's 4.5 RPG and .564...

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+159
PITPittsburgh Pirates-190
Pick Probability54%KCR moneyline
KCRRandy DobnakConfirmed
PITPaul SkenesConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.5
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
PIT / standard confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model takes KCR at 53.9% against a market implying 63.4% home, and it is picking the team with the worse record (67-86) and far worse offense (.518...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-120
HOUHouston Astros+100
Pick Probability53%HOU moneyline
ATLTyler MahleConfirmed
HOUPeter LambertConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.5
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
ATL / standard confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model leans HOU at 53.3% while market implies 47.8%, and the offense_defense_mismatch flag fits: ATL is 89-64 with a .789 OPS versus Houston's 77-7...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins-114
LAALos Angeles Angels-105
Pick Probability51%LAA moneyline
MINConnor PrielippConfirmed
LAAGrayson RodriguezConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
LAA / lean confidence / Rank 10 / Agrees with model

Model (50.9%) and market (46.9%) are close; this is near a coin flip. Minnesota's 3.0 RPG and .673 OPS is the weakest input here, which supports ta...

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