MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-17 / 28 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
NYM at CIN Jun 17, 10:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNolan McLean NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 9 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 19% over
O 8.5 11% over
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% under
O 3.5 81% under
O 4.5 66% under
O 5.5 50% under
O 6.5 35% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
KCR at WSN Jun 17, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuinder Avila KCR starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 63% over
O 3.5 41% over
O 4.5 24% over
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zack Littell WSN starter / home
Projected K 3.3 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 63% under
O 3.5 42% under
O 4.5 24% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIA at PHI Jun 17, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Andrew Painter PHI starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DET at HOU Jun 17, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Mize DET starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SDP at STL Jun 17, 12:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBradgley Rodriguez SDP starter / away
Projected K 1.6 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 47% under
O 2.5 22% under
O 3.5 8% under
O 4.5 3% under
O 5.5 1% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Kyle Leahy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 7 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TBR at LAD Jun 17, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane McClanahan TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Shohei Ohtani LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
LAA at ARI Jun 17, 1:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSam Aldegheri LAA starter / away
Projected K 3.1 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% under
O 2.5 60% under
O 3.5 38% under
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TOR at BOS Jun 17, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraydon Fisher TOR starter / away
Projected K 2.3 Actual 0 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 66% under
O 2.5 40% under
O 3.5 20% under
O 4.5 9% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Jake Bennett BOS starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 30% over
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHW at NYY Jun 17, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAnthony Kay CHW starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Carlos Rodón NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 7 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SFG at ATL Jun 17, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCarson Whisenhunt SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 62% under
O 3.5 41% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
JR Ritchie ATL starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CLE at MIL Jun 17, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGavin Williams CLE starter / away
Projected K 6.3 Actual 4 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% under
O 5.5 59% under
O 6.5 44% under
O 7.5 30% under
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brandon Sproat MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
COL at CHC Jun 17, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Sullivan COL starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.2 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% under
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Javier Assad CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% under
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
BAL at SEA Jun 17, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 12 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 4% over
O 10.5 2% over
O 11.5 1% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
George Kirby SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
PIT at OAK Jun 17, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 7 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Aaron Civale OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% under
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.