MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-18 / 16 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betrivers fanatics
TOR at BOS Jun 18, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrey Yesavage TOR starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Sonny Gray BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 fanatics / U -130 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CLE at MIL Jun 18, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 bovada / U -130 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% over
O 7.5 14% over
O 8.5 7% over
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Shane Drohan MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -121 draftkings / U +102 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 27%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIN at TEX Jun 18, 12:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoe Ryan MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -120 draftkings / U -105 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 38% over
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jack Leiter TEX starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 fanatics / U -128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
BAL at SEA Jun 18, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Baz BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 draftkings / U -106 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Bryan Woo SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 fanduel / U -120 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 22% over
O 8.5 13% over
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
NYM at PHI Jun 18, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 draftkings / U -150 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betmgm / U -147 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHW at NYY Jun 18, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Hudson CHW starter / away
Projected K 1.5 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 43% over
O 2.5 19% under
O 3.5 7% under
O 4.5 2% under
O 5.5 0% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Ryan Weathers NYY starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 fanduel / U +120 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 43% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
STL at KCR Jun 18, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Liberatore STL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -157 betrivers / U +135 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +122 draftkings / U -140 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAA at OAK Jun 18, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Johnson LAA starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U -120 betmgm 1 book at this line
Model over 3.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 62% under
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Gage Jump OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +108 betrivers / U -115 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.