MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-19 / 28 starters
Market
Lines
TOR at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U +107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ben BrownCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -111 betonlineag / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CHW at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon EisertCHW starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%over
O 2.538%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalDET starter / home
Projected K6.9Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -106 betrivers / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.567%over
O 6.553%over
O 7.539%over
O 8.526%under
O 9.517%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

CIN at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betonlineag / U -150 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 13 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -132 fanduel / U +117 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.

WSN at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
PJ PoulinWSN starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%under
O 2.534%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betrivers / U +100 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SFG at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Lake BacharMIA starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

MIL at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K8.0Actual 7 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +100 bovada / U -116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%over
O 6.567%over
O 7.554%under
O 8.541%under
O 9.529%under
O 10.520%under
O 11.513%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -109 betrivers / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.574%under
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.8Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -102 fanduel / U -106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.566%over
O 6.552%over
O 7.538%over
O 8.526%over
O 9.516%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

CLE at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betonlineag / U -109 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 fanduel / U +130 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

STL at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betrivers / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 betmgm / U -160 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

PIT at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 draftkings / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 fanduel / U +125 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

LAA at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
José SorianoLAA starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 draftkings / U -148 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betonlineag / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIN at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +123 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Michael SorokaARI starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 draftkings / U -144 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

BOS at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -150 bovada / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betrivers / U -125 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

BAL at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trey GibsonBAL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 bovada / U -122 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Roki SasakiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betrivers / U +123 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.