MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-20 / 28 starters
Market
Lines
CHW at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean NewcombCHW starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanduel / U -138 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CIN at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 betrivers / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -128 fanduel / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

TOR at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Patrick CorbinTOR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -106 draftkings / U -108 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -121 betrivers / U +110 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

SDP at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 fanduel / U -125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

WSN at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -104 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SFG at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betrivers / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Max MeyerMIA starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -139 betrivers / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

MIL at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 fanatics / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +116 fanduel / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.556%over
O 7.542%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

NYM at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 fanduel / U -139 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%under
O 6.556%under
O 7.542%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CLE at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 draftkings / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 betonlineag / U +116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

PIT at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -128 fanduel / U +117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -123 betonlineag / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 2.571%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAA at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +144 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

BOS at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Connelly EarlyBOS starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 draftkings / U +115 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Emerson HancockSEA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 draftkings / U +118 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

BAL at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betrivers / U +133 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 draftkings / U -135 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 7.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.523%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIN at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanatics / U +122 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zac GallenARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 fanatics / U +134 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.