MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-27 / 22 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
SEA at TEX Jul 27, 12:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGeorge Kirby SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +111 draftkings / U -132 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betrivers / U -108 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
ARI at PIT Jul 27, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMerrill Kelly ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betmgm / U -129 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Mitch Keller PIT starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -156 fanduel / U +125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PHI at MIA Jul 27, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZack Wheeler PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.7 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +112 fanduel / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% over
O 6.5 49% under
O 7.5 35% under
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -124 draftkings / U +106 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
BAL at DET Jul 27, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -118 betmgm / U +100 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Keider Montero DET starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 fanatics / U +100 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
TOR at WSN Jul 27, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Scherzer TOR starter / away
Projected K 2.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 bovada / U -157 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 77% over
O 2.5 54% over
O 3.5 32% over
O 4.5 17% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Eddy Yean WSN starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.2 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% under
O 2.5 61% under
O 3.5 39% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
ATL at NYM Jul 27, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMartín Pérez ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -125 betmgm / U +110 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Zac Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 betrivers / U -126 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
NYY at CHW Jul 27, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Fried NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -148 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Noah Schultz CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 betmgm / U +115 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHC at STL Jul 27, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavid Peterson CHC starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +121 draftkings / U -139 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -160 betmgm / U +120 betmgm 1 book at this line
Model over 3.5 71%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
HOU at LAA Jul 27, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTatsuya Imai HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 1 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 fanduel / U -145 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% under
O 2.5 92% under
O 3.5 82% under
O 4.5 68% under
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Walbert Urena LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 fanduel / U +105 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
BOS at OAK Jul 27, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPayton Tolle BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -106 betrivers / U -102 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jack Perkins OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +120 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIL at SFG Jul 27, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Sproat MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -111 fanduel / U -105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Tyler Mahle SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 betmgm / U +106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.