MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-06 / 22 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
LAA at BAL Aug 6, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Johnson LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betmgm / U -143 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Brandon Young BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 betonlineag / U -130 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% under
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
OAK at CIN Aug 6, 10:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Barnett OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -133 draftkings / U +110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Andrew Abbott CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +122 fanduel / U -150 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYM at CLE Aug 6, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNolan McLean NYM starter / away
Projected K 6.0 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 betmgm / U +114 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% over
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Foster Griffin CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 fanduel / U -140 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PIT at MIL Aug 6, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -136 fanduel / U +115 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Dustin May MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 betmgm / U +106 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TOR at CHC Aug 6, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDylan Cease TOR starter / away
Projected K 8.0 Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -125 betonlineag / U +120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 95% over
O 4.5 89% over
O 5.5 79% over
O 6.5 67% over
O 7.5 54% over
O 8.5 41% over
O 9.5 29% over
O 10.5 20% under
O 11.5 13% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Did not start / void
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -134 betrivers / U +122 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86%
O 2.5 67%
O 3.5 46%
O 4.5 28%
O 5.5 15%
O 6.5 7%
O 7.5 3%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
DET at SEA Aug 6, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFramber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 bovada / U +128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Bryce Miller SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +102 draftkings / U -120 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
WSN at PHI Aug 6, 4:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMiles Mikolas WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -164 betonlineag / U +135 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 68%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% under
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Cristopher Sánchez PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.6 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +120 betrivers / U -130 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% under
O 7.5 34% under
O 8.5 23% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHW at BOS Aug 6, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuis Castillo CHW starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.2 Actual 5 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 39% over
O 4.5 22% over
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Ranger Suarez BOS starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -143 betrivers / U +125 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIA at ATL Aug 6, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJanson Junk MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -105 draftkings / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% under
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Martín Pérez ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betmgm / U +126 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIN at KCR Aug 6, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBailey Ober MIN starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betrivers / U +100 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% under
O 2.5 70% under
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 31% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Michael Wacha KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 bovada / U +105 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SDP at ARI Aug 6, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalker Buehler SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 betrivers / U -103 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Kohl Drake ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -132 betrivers / U +113 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.