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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-05 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
TOR at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jameson TaillonTOR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 fanatics / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betrivers / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

LAD at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eric LauerLAD starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -104 fanduel / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -124 betrivers / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SFG at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Carson WhisenhuntSFG starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cody BradfordTEX starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 fanduel / U +127 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TBR at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 draftkings / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -106 betrivers / U -111 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 2.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAA at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -149 betonlineag / U +120 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 6.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 betmgm / U +100 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

WSN at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 draftkings / U +105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -159 betrivers / U +132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYM at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Christian ScottNYM starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -144 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

OAK at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob LopezOAK starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 draftkings / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 betonlineag / U -151 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

STL at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 betrivers / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CHW at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -142 fanduel / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%under
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -140 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

MIA at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 fanatics / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Bryce ElderATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

PIT at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.5Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 fanatics / U -151 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 7.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

MIN at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dean KremerMIN starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +103 betonlineag / U -111 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +129 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

DET at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Drew AndersonDET starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +123 draftkings / U -156 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%under
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Bryan WooSEA starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +117 draftkings / U -140 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Casey MizeSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 betonlineag / U -128 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Mitch BrattARI starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +133 draftkings / U -158 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%over
O 5.514%over
O 6.56%over
O 7.53%over
O 8.51%over
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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