MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-04 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
LAA at BAL Aug 4, 4:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrayson Rodriguez LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 betmgm / U -139 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Cade Povich BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 betrivers / U +106 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
WSN at PHI Aug 4, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCarson Palmquist WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% under
O 2.5 61% under
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Jesús Luzardo PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.9 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +100 betmgm / U -110 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 80% over
O 5.5 67% over
O 6.5 53% over
O 7.5 39% under
O 8.5 27% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
NYM at CLE Aug 4, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 bovada / U +105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Joey Cantillo CLE starter / home
Projected K 7.0 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -118 betrivers / U +108 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 68%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 81% over
O 5.5 68% under
O 6.5 54% under
O 7.5 40% under
O 8.5 28% under
O 9.5 18% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
OAK at CIN Aug 4, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJ.T. Ginn OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +124 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -114 betonlineag / U +100 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 73%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 57% over
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
STL at NYY Aug 4, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Dobbins STL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -160 bovada / U +130 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ryan Weathers NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 fanatics / U +100 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHW at BOS Aug 4, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavis Martin CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 fanatics / U -150 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% under
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Patrick Sandoval BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U +102 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIA at ATL Aug 4, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Gusto MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 betmgm / U -113 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 62% over
O 3.5 40% over
O 4.5 23% over
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Grant Holmes ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 bovada / U +100 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
PIT at MIL Aug 4, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJared Jones PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 fanatics / U +105 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Logan Henderson MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +100 betmgm / U -107 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% over
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
MIN at KCR Aug 4, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoe Ryan MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -118 draftkings / U +100 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Randy Dobnak KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -130 bovada / U +102 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 2.5 67%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% under
O 2.5 67% under
O 3.5 45% under
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SFG at TEX Aug 4, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBlade Tidwell SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 bovada / U -161 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 27%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 45% under
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MacKenzie Gore TEX starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -111 fanduel / U -106 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAD at CHC Aug 4, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTarik Skubal LAD starter / away
Projected K 7.2 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +118 fanduel / U -135 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 83% over
O 5.5 71% over
O 6.5 57% under
O 7.5 43% under
O 8.5 31% under
O 9.5 20% under
O 10.5 13% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Javier Assad CHC starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +108 betrivers / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TOR at HOU Aug 4, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrey Yesavage TOR starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Hayden Wesneski HOU starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -161 draftkings / U +130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TBR at COL Aug 4, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFreddy Peralta TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betmgm / U -153 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Gabriel Hughes COL starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +116 betrivers / U -138 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 10% over
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
DET at SEA Aug 4, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTroy Melton DET starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 betonlineag / U -139 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Emerson Hancock SEA starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +136 betonlineag / U -158 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SDP at ARI Aug 4, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRandy Vásquez SDP starter / away
Projected K 2.6 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O +130 draftkings / U -145 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 2.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 73% under
O 2.5 48% under
O 3.5 27% under
O 4.5 13% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -145 betmgm / U +142 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.