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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-03 / 16 starters
Market
Lines
WSN at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -134 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

STL at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +129 draftkings / U -154 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -148 fanduel / U +123 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

PIT at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -133 draftkings / U +106 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Brandon SproatMIL starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -128 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SFG at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan WebbSFG starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -152 betrivers / U +130 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Cal QuantrillTEX starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 draftkings / U -103 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

LAD at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -127 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -138 draftkings / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TOR at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 betonlineag / U -166 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Cristian JavierHOU starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 bovada / U +125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TBR at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 fanduel / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Michael LorenzenCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +136 draftkings / U -155 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

SDP at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 bovada / U -166 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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