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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-02 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
PHI at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K7.5Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -109 betonlineag / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%under
O 4.585%under
O 5.574%under
O 6.561%under
O 7.547%under
O 8.534%under
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -106 fanduel / U -112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.566%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

WSN at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 fanatics / U -152 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

JR RitchieATL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 fanduel / U +124 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

STL at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 betrivers / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 draftkings / U +125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CHW at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -165 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 draftkings / U -135 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

MIA at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +109 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -125 betmgm1 book at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.534%over
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

ARI at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 fanduel / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -119 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.540%over
O 8.527%over
O 9.518%over
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

PIT at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 draftkings / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

TEX at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kumar RockerTEX starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 draftkings / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 betonlineag / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.537%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

NYY at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +105 betmgm / U -121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

KCR at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanatics / U -157 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betrivers / U -145 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

MIL at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K9.5Actual 10 K / Over 9.5
Best price at 9.59.5O +112 betonlineag / U -135 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 9.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.595%over
O 5.589%over
O 6.581%over
O 7.571%over
O 8.559%over
O 9.547%over
O 10.536%under
O 11.526%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betrivers / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

DET at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Keider MonteroDET starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 betmgm / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -106 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIN at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%under
O 3.588%under
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +104 betonlineag / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

SFG at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betrivers / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Kyle HartSDP starter / home
Projected K2.0Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +146 betonlineag / U -192 betonlineag1 book at this line
Model over 2.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%over
O 2.532%under
O 3.514%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BOS at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 betrivers / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Emmet SheehanLAD starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 bovada / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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