MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-20 / 18 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
STL at CIN Aug 20, 10:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael McGreevy STL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -102 fanduel / U -120 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +108 betrivers / U -128 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% under
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TOR at TBR Aug 20, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Bieber TOR starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -122 fanduel / U +110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 28% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% over
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Ian Seymour TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 bovada / U -134 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
SFG at CLE Aug 20, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLanden Roupp SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 fanduel / U -133 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Gavin Williams CLE starter / home
Projected K 7.9 Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +115 betmgm / U -110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 94% over
O 4.5 88% over
O 5.5 78% over
O 6.5 66% over
O 7.5 53% over
O 8.5 40% over
O 9.5 28% over
O 10.5 19% over
O 11.5 12% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
SEA at MIL Aug 20, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGeorge Kirby SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 fanatics / U +124 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 fanduel / U -145 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
OAK at KCR Aug 20, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGage Jump OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -138 fanduel / U +110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Randy Dobnak KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +118 betrivers / U -137 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
ATL at CHW Aug 20, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMartín Pérez ATL starter / away
Projected K 2.5 Did not start / void
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 bovada / U -150 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 12%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 71%
O 2.5 46%
O 3.5 25%
O 4.5 12%
O 5.5 5%
O 6.5 2%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Anthony Kay CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 fanduel / U -130 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYY at BAL Aug 20, 4:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGerrit Cole NYY starter / away
Projected K 6.2 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -116 draftkings / U -104 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% over
O 6.5 42% over
O 7.5 28% over
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Kyle Bradish BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 fanatics / U +113 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
WSN at TEX Aug 20, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Alvarez WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 fanduel / U -137 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 fanatics / U +110 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 40% over
O 7.5 27% over
O 8.5 17% over
O 9.5 10% over
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
LAA at HOU Aug 20, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrayson Rodriguez LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +106 fanduel / U -110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% under
O 4.5 76% under
O 5.5 62% under
O 6.5 47% under
O 7.5 33% under
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.