MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-20 / 18 starters
Market
Lines
STL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 fanduel / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +108 betrivers / U -128 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TOR at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

SFG at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -133 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.9Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betmgm / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.578%over
O 6.566%over
O 7.553%over
O 8.540%over
O 9.528%over
O 10.519%over
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

SEA at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -145 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

OAK at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gage JumpOAK starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -138 fanduel / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +118 betrivers / U -137 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

ATL at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K2.5Did not start / void
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -150 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.512%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.571%
O 2.546%
O 3.525%
O 4.512%
O 5.55%
O 6.52%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -130 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

NYY at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -116 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanatics / U +113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

WSN at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -137 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanatics / U +110 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%over
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

LAA at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%under
O 4.576%under
O 5.562%under
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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