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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-19 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
DET at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jackson JobeDET starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 betrivers / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +134 fanduel / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +128 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

ATL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 draftkings / U -162 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 4.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -124 draftkings / U +108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CHW at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean NewcombCHW starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Clay HolmesCHC starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 draftkings / U -102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

ARI at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 betonlineag / U +102 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U +102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIA at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 draftkings / U -145 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -124 draftkings / U +108 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

NYY at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Chris BassittBAL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U -107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

TOR at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Max ScherzerTOR starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 draftkings / U -109 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.564%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SFG at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +108 fanduel / U -124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

STL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -114 betrivers / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 fanduel / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

SEA at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 fanduel / U -141 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Dustin MayMIL starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%under
O 2.590%under
O 3.579%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

OAK at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 bovada / U -149 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%under
O 2.555%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

WSN at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 fanatics / U +116 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%over
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Kumar RockerTEX starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAA at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -117 betrivers / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Ethan PeckoHOU starter / homeThin data
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

LAD at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -139 betrivers / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 draftkings / U +100 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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