MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-21 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
ATL at MIL Aug 21, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Sale ATL starter / away
Projected K 6.9 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -114 betonlineag / U -109 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 80% over
O 5.5 67% over
O 6.5 53% under
O 7.5 39% under
O 8.5 27% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Jacob Misiorowski MIL starter / home
Projected K 9.3 Actual 6 K / Under 9.5
Best price at 9.5 9.5 O +120 betmgm / U -142 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 9.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 99% over
O 3.5 98% over
O 4.5 94% over
O 5.5 89% over
O 6.5 80% under
O 7.5 70% under
O 8.5 58% under
O 9.5 45% under
O 10.5 34% under
O 11.5 24% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
STL at PHI Aug 21, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Dobbins STL starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -125 betrivers / U +124 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Jesús Luzardo PHI starter / home
Projected K 7.5 Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +115 bovada / U -135 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% over
O 6.5 61% over
O 7.5 47% over
O 8.5 34% over
O 9.5 23% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
TOR at NYY Aug 21, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Fluharty TOR starter / away
Projected K 2.2 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 64% under
O 2.5 37% under
O 3.5 18% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Cam Schlittler NYY starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -111 fanduel / U -105 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% under
O 5.5 59% under
O 6.5 44% under
O 7.5 30% under
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
WSN at MIA Aug 21, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrad Lord WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -105 draftkings / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% under
O 2.5 62% under
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Ryan Gusto MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -156 fanduel / U +135 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
SFG at BOS Aug 21, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Webb SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +112 fanduel / U -125 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Sonny Gray BOS starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -102 fanduel / U -108 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TBR at BAL Aug 21, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFreddy Peralta TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -146 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Trevor Rogers BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYM at CHW Aug 21, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 fanduel / U +120 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% under
O 5.5 60% under
O 6.5 45% under
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
DET at KCR Aug 21, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTroy Melton DET starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betmgm / U -120 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -137 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% under
O 3.5 78% under
O 4.5 62% under
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
OAK at HOU Aug 21, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJ.T. Ginn OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Hayden Wesneski HOU starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAA at TEX Aug 21, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReid Detmers LAA starter / away
Projected K 6.1 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +105 betmgm / U -116 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 41% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MacKenzie Gore TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.8 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -148 fanduel / U +116 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 6.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 79% over
O 5.5 66% over
O 6.5 51% over
O 7.5 37% under
O 8.5 25% under
O 9.5 16% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CLE at COL Aug 21, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoey Cantillo CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -116 draftkings / U -105 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Tanner Gordon COL starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +140 betonlineag / U -162 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIN at SDP Aug 21, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastConnor Prielipp MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -148 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Randy Vásquez SDP starter / home
Projected K 2.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +129 draftkings / U -156 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% over
O 2.5 52% over
O 3.5 31% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CIN at ARI Aug 21, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNick Lodolo CIN starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -118 draftkings / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% under
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -150 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CHC at SEA Aug 21, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Boyd CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 fanatics / U +110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Emerson Hancock SEA starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -164 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PIT at LAD Aug 21, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBubba Chandler PIT starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betmgm / U -144 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 betmgm / U +124 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 58% over
O 6.5 42% over
O 7.5 29% over
O 8.5 18% over
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.