Ranked picks with source labels.

Wheeler (2.16 ERA, 10.53 K/9, 0.88 WHIP in 100 IP) is having an elite season against Miami's weak 2.7 RPG offense. Market at -178 implies 64% PHI;...

Model sees HOU 55% vs market 51% — minimal comparison. Ureña's 2.78 ERA in 87 IP is legitimate but LAA offense (.860 OPS) creates run support varia...

Model (55.2%) and market (61.6% BOS) both favor Boston but market is more confident. BOS offense (.736 OPS, 5.3 RPG) significantly stronger than OA...

Model has SEA 54.2%, market implies 55.8% — tight convergence. Kirby's 3.57 ERA vs Rocker's 4.13 ERA supports Seattle slight comparison. Model tota...

Model likes ARI at 54.2%, market splits nearly even at 52% PIT. Both starters mediocre (Keller 4.90 ERA, Kelly 5.12 ERA) in hitter-friendly PNC Par...

Market has WSN at 55.6%, model essentially coin-flip at 50.8% TOR. Scherzer's 10.23 ERA over 22 IP signals decline or injury; WSN's 7.1 RPG offense...

Model likes NYM at 53% but market has ATL favored at 52%. Thornton's 1.93 ERA over 23 IP is strong but Pérez is solid at 3.38 over 85 IP. ATL's 6.0...