LAD at ATL

Model (59.8% LAD) and market (implied 58.6% away) converge, so no real disagreement to exploit. Glasnow's 0.83 WHIP and 11.12 K/9 over 39.7 IP outc...

TBR is 78-53 with a .802 OPS vs Detroit's .582 and 3.6 RPG. Seymour's 10.92 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP over 101 IP outclass Jobe, who has only 14 IP with a...

Model's 58.9% on BOS sits close to the market's ~62% implied, so no real disagreement; Tolle (3.08 ERA, 10.05 K/9, 1.08 WHIP) is the only pitcher w...

Model (59.3%) and market (~58% implied on CLE -139) agree, and the fundamentals back it: Cleveland is 66-66 with 4.8 RPG versus a 52-80 Angels club...

STL's offense is the clear comparison: 5.6 RPG and .812 OPS against BAL's 4.0 and .662, with Bassitt carrying a 5.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Model's 59....

Model has NYM at 54.4% against a market implying 40.2% while picking the worse team on both record (59-72 vs 81-50) and offense (3.9 RPG/.736 OPS v...

Model's 8.86 total sits 1.86 runs above the 7.0 market line despite two of the weakest offenses on the board (3.7 and 3.5 RPG, .729/.698 OPS) and d...

Market is essentially a pick'em (-105/-103) and the model's 53.8% adds nothing. Kirby's 4.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP comparison Nola's 5.12/1.42, and T-M...

Model takes KCR at 53.5% while market implies 54.7% home — an 8+ point gap I won't follow. Scherzer's 7.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 45 IP is a real c...

Model's 9.02-run total is over 2 runs above the 7.0 market line, an obvious structural miss: Petco plays at 0.962, King carries a 3.38 ERA/1.17 WHI...