MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-19 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-19
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+120
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-143
Pick Probability58%PHI moneyline
CINChase Burns
PHIJesús Luzardo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
PHI / pass confidence / Rank 12

Away pitcher Chase Burns has completely null stats (0.0 IP, no ERA/K9/WHIP) despite 10 starts listed—clear data error. Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in only 6....

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+115
NYYNew York Yankees-135
Pick Probability58%NYY moneyline
TORDylan Cease
NYYWill Warren
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has NYY 58% but Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP and 1.69 ERA is elite form vs Warren's 4.1 IP sample (2.08 ERA but 1.62 WHIP). Market at TOR +1...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-116
CHCChicago Cubs-102
Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline
MILJacob Misiorowski
CHCBen Brown
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has CHC 57.5% vs market 49.1% — an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 50 IP is elite strikeout stuff;...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+105
TBRTampa Bay Rays-125
Pick Probability56%BAL moneyline
BALKyle Bradish
TBRGriffin Jax
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors BAL at 55.7% but market has TBR at 53.5%—essentially a coin flip. Griffin Jax's 1.0 IP and 18.00 ERA is noise (likely reliever role, n...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-126
COLColorado Rockies+106
Pick Probability56%TEX moneyline
TEXTyler Alexander
COLSammy Peralta
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.8
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-19
Rank#1
TOR at NYYToronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickTORlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelNYY / 58%Model pick probability

Model has NYY 58% but Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP and 1.69 ERA is elite form vs Warren's 4.1 IP sample (2.08 ERA but 1.62 WHIP). Market at TOR +121 is a notable comp...

Rank#2
MIL at CHCMilwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCHC / 58%Model pick probability

Model has CHC 57.5% vs market 49.1% — an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 50 IP is elite strikeout stuff; MIL's .972 OPS dwarf...

Rank#3
ATL at MIAAtlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelMIA / 51%Model pick probability

Model calls coin flip (51% MIA), market leans ATL (56% implied). ATL's 32-16 record vs MIA's 22-26 plus superior .789 OPS suggests market is a notable comparison point...

Rank#4
CLE at DETCleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
AI Analyst PickCLElean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelDET / 54%Model pick probability

Model likes DET at 53.5% vs market's 46.9%, but CLE has superior offense (5.6 vs 2.5 RPG) and better record (27-22 vs 20-28). Missing pitcher stats (both null ERA/WHIP...

Rank#5
CHW at SEAChicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
AI Analyst PickCHWlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSEA / 54%Model pick probability

Model has SEA 53.6%, market implies 57.8% — both near coin flip. CHW scores 5.7 RPG vs SEA 3.9 RPG, yet model picks the worse offense at home. T-Mobile extreme pitcher...

Rank#6
BAL at TBRBaltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelBAL / 56%Model pick probability

Model favors BAL at 55.7% but market has TBR at 53.5%—essentially a coin flip. Griffin Jax's 1.0 IP and 18.00 ERA is noise (likely reliever role, not real starter data...

Rank#7
LAD at SDPLos Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSDP / 54%Model pick probability

Model has SDP 53.5% vs market 41.2% — a 12-point disagreement. Sheehan's 10.8 ERA in 3.1 IP is extreme small sample noise; LAD offense at 4.9 RPG/.743 OPS vastly outcl...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+120
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-143
Pick Probability58%PHI moneyline
CINChase Burns
PHIJesús Luzardo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
PHI / pass confidence / Rank 12

Away pitcher Chase Burns has completely null stats (0.0 IP, no ERA/K9/WHIP) despite 10 starts listed—clear data error. Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in only 6....

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+115
NYYNew York Yankees-135
Pick Probability58%NYY moneyline
TORDylan Cease
NYYWill Warren
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has NYY 58% but Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP and 1.69 ERA is elite form vs Warren's 4.1 IP sample (2.08 ERA but 1.62 WHIP). Market at TOR +1...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-116
CHCChicago Cubs-102
Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline
MILJacob Misiorowski
CHCBen Brown
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has CHC 57.5% vs market 49.1% — an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 50 IP is elite strikeout stuff;...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+105
TBRTampa Bay Rays-125
Pick Probability56%BAL moneyline
BALKyle Bradish
TBRGriffin Jax
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors BAL at 55.7% but market has TBR at 53.5%—essentially a coin flip. Griffin Jax's 1.0 IP and 18.00 ERA is noise (likely reliever role, n...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-126
COLColorado Rockies+106
Pick Probability56%TEX moneyline
TEXTyler Alexander
COLSammy Peralta
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.8
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+118
MINMinnesota Twins-140
Pick Probability55%HOU moneyline
HOUJason Alexander
MINZebby Matthews
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
HOU / pass confidence / Rank 10

Both pitchers lack resolved season stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9 all null). Model favors HOU despite worse record and worse offense (2.0 RPG vs 4.2). Marke...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+102
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-123
Pick Probability55%SFG moneyline
SFGLanden Roupp
ARIRyne Nelson
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
SFG / pass confidence / Rank 11

Away pitcher Landen Roupp has null ERA/IP/WHIP despite 10 starts listed—data quality issue makes total unreliable. Model picks SFG 55.2% vs market...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians-125
DETDetroit Tigers+105
Pick Probability54%DET moneyline
CLEParker Messick
DETKeider Montero
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
CLE / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model likes DET at 53.5% vs market's 46.9%, but CLE has superior offense (5.6 vs 2.5 RPG) and better record (27-22 vs 20-28). Missing pitcher stats...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-106
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-113
Pick Probability54%STL moneyline
PITMitch Keller
STLMatthew Liberatore
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
STL / pass confidence / Rank 8

Both pitchers show extreme small-sample noise: Liberatore 1.8 ERA in 5.0 IP (2 starts?), Keller 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP. These are not real skill levels....

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+110
LAALos Angeles Angels-132
Pick Probability54%LAA moneyline
OAKJacob Lopez
LAAReid Detmers
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
LAA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+127
SEASeattle Mariners-150
Pick Probability54%SEA moneyline
CHWAnthony Kay
SEABryce Miller
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has SEA 53.6%, market implies 57.8% — both near coin flip. CHW scores 5.7 RPG vs SEA 3.9 RPG, yet model picks the worse offense at home. T-Mo...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-159
SDPSan Diego Padres+133
Pick Probability54%SDP moneyline
LADEmmet Sheehan
SDPGriffin Canning
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has SDP 53.5% vs market 41.2% — a 12-point disagreement. Sheehan's 10.8 ERA in 3.1 IP is extreme small sample noise; LAD offense at 4.9 RPG/....

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-147
WSNWashington Nationals+125
Pick Probability52%NYM moneyline
NYMNolan McLean
WSNFoster Griffin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-143
MIAMiami Marlins+120
Pick Probability51%MIA moneyline
ATLMartín Pérez
MIABraxton Garrett
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model calls coin flip (51% MIA), market leans ATL (56% implied). ATL's 32-16 record vs MIA's 22-26 plus superior .789 OPS suggests market is a nota...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-129
KCRKansas City Royals+109
Pick Probability51%KCR moneyline
BOSRanger Suarez
KCRBailey Falter
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
KCR / pass confidence / Rank 9

Suarez has null stats across all categories—unclear if this is data issue or he hasn't pitched. Without away SP context, can't evaluate moneyline....