MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-07-19 / 16 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-07-19
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-103
KCRKansas City Royals-115
Pick Probability62%KCR moneyline
SDPGermán MárquezConfirmed
KCRNoah CameronConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
KCR / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has KCR at 62% vs market 54%. Both starters mediocre (Cameron 4.89 ERA, Márquez 5.18 ERA over 10 GS each). Market total 10.0 runs seems high...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays+105
BOSBoston Red Sox-125
Pick Probability61%BOS moneyline
TBRShane McClanahanConfirmed
BOSSonny GrayConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
BOS / pass confidence / Rank 11

Model has BOS 61% vs market 53% — an 8-point gap triggers the disagreement flag but Gray/McClanahan ace matchup (2.54/2.83 ERA, 95/86 IP) argues fo...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-129
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+108
Pick Probability58%PHI moneyline
NYMNolan McLeanConfirmed
PHIAlan RangelConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has PHI at 58.3% but market implies NYM at 54.3% — a 12.6pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. NYM's superior offense (5.1 RPG, .736 O...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+166
SEASeattle Mariners-196
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
SFGRobbie RayConfirmed
SEALogan GilbertConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Market implies 61.9% SEA, model has 58.3%—market is more confident than model. Gilbert (3.32 ERA) and Ray (3.38 ERA) qualify as ace matchup at T-Mo...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-132
NYYNew York Yankees+110
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
LADYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
NYYCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model has LAD 57.6%, market implies 52.6% — modest comparison. Weathers 4.15 ERA at home in pitcher park vs Sheehan 4.81 ERA suggests tighter game...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-07-19
Rank#1
WSN at OAKWashington Nationals at Oakland Athletics
AI Analyst PickWSNstandard confidence
Agrees with modelWSN / 52%Model pick probability

WSN's Griffin (2.77 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 110 IP) is a legitimate pitcher facing OAK's league-worst offense (3.5 RPG, .512 OPS). Model at 52.2% vs market 56.8% on WSN unde...

Rank#2
SDP at KCRSan Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals
AI Analyst PickKCRlean confidence
Agrees with modelKCR / 62%Model pick probability

Model has KCR at 62% vs market 54%. Both starters mediocre (Cameron 4.89 ERA, Márquez 5.18 ERA over 10 GS each). Market total 10.0 runs seems high given pitcher qualit...

Rank#3
BAL at HOUBaltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
AI Analyst PickBALlean confidence
Agrees with modelBAL / 54%Model pick probability

Model leans BAL 54.4%, market nearly even at 51.7% HOU. Extreme pitcher's park (PF 0.81) suppresses totals; model's 9.10 overshoots market 8.5 by 0.6 runs. Brown's 9.9...

Rank#4
PIT at CLEPittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians
AI Analyst PickPITlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCLE / 54%Model pick probability

Model sees 8.72 total vs market 7.0 — a 1.72-run gap flags structural miss. Skenes (3.57 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 1.02 WHIP) and Cantillo (3.56 ERA, 9.36 K/9) both pitching well...

Rank#5
SFG at SEASan Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
AI Analyst PickSEAlean confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 58%Model pick probability

Market implies 61.9% SEA, model has 58.3%—market is more confident than model. Gilbert (3.32 ERA) and Ray (3.38 ERA) qualify as ace matchup at T-Mobile (PF 0.855). Mod...

Rank#6
LAD at NYYLos Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 58%Model pick probability

Model has LAD 57.6%, market implies 52.6% — modest comparison. Weathers 4.15 ERA at home in pitcher park vs Sheehan 4.81 ERA suggests tighter game than model's -1.24 m...

Rank#7
CHW at TORChicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
AI Analyst PickCHWlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTOR / 56%Model pick probability

Model favors TOR 55.6% vs market 47.8%, an 8-point gap. CHW has better record (51-46 vs 46-52) and offense (4.8 vs 4.1 RPG). offense_defense_mismatch flag fires becaus...

Rank#8
CIN at COLCincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickCINlean confidence
Agrees with modelCIN / 55%Model pick probability

Model total of 9.27 is 1.73 runs below market 11.0 at Coors (PF 1.47). Extreme park argues over but Greene's 16.55 K/9 in small 10.3 IP sample and Feltner's 4.55 ERA o...

Rank#9
NYM at PHINew York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
AI Analyst PickNYMlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelPHI / 58%Model pick probability

Model has PHI at 58.3% but market implies NYM at 54.3% — a 12.6pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. NYM's superior offense (5.1 RPG, .736 OPS vs 3.1/.57) and M...

Rank#10
MIN at CHCMinnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Agrees with modelCHC / 51%Model pick probability

Market has CHC at 60.2% vs model's 51%, a 9-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Model predicts 9.12 total vs market 7.5—that 1.6-run miss is structural. Wrigley P...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

16 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-103
KCRKansas City Royals-115
Pick Probability62%KCR moneyline
SDPGermán MárquezConfirmed
KCRNoah CameronConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
KCR / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has KCR at 62% vs market 54%. Both starters mediocre (Cameron 4.89 ERA, Márquez 5.18 ERA over 10 GS each). Market total 10.0 runs seems high...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays+105
BOSBoston Red Sox-125
Pick Probability61%BOS moneyline
TBRShane McClanahanConfirmed
BOSSonny GrayConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
BOS / pass confidence / Rank 11

Model has BOS 61% vs market 53% — an 8-point gap triggers the disagreement flag but Gray/McClanahan ace matchup (2.54/2.83 ERA, 95/86 IP) argues fo...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-129
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+108
Pick Probability58%PHI moneyline
NYMNolan McLeanConfirmed
PHIAlan RangelConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has PHI at 58.3% but market implies NYM at 54.3% — a 12.6pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. NYM's superior offense (5.1 RPG, .736 O...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+166
SEASeattle Mariners-196
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
SFGRobbie RayConfirmed
SEALogan GilbertConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Market implies 61.9% SEA, model has 58.3%—market is more confident than model. Gilbert (3.32 ERA) and Ray (3.38 ERA) qualify as ace matchup at T-Mo...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-132
NYYNew York Yankees+110
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
LADYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
NYYCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model has LAD 57.6%, market implies 52.6% — modest comparison. Weathers 4.15 ERA at home in pitcher park vs Sheehan 4.81 ERA suggests tighter game...

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers-147
LAALos Angeles Angels+122
Pick Probability58%DET moneyline
DETCasey MizeConfirmed
LAARyan JohnsonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.4
Model pick
DET moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-139
NYYNew York Yankees+116
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
LADWill KleinConfirmed
NYYRyan YarbroughConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.9
Model pick
LAD moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox-116
TORToronto Blue Jays-103
Pick Probability56%TOR moneyline
CHWSean BurkeConfirmed
TORTrey YesavageConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors TOR 55.6% vs market 47.8%, an 8-point gap. CHW has better record (51-46 vs 46-52) and offense (4.8 vs 4.1 RPG). offense_defense_mismat...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds-167
COLColorado Rockies+140
Pick Probability55%CIN moneyline
CINHunter GreeneConfirmed
COLRyan FeltnerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total11.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model total of 9.27 is 1.73 runs below market 11.0 at Coors (PF 1.47). Extreme park argues over but Greene's 16.55 K/9 in small 10.3 IP sample and...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-104
CLECleveland Guardians-115
Pick Probability54%CLE moneyline
PITPaul SkenesConfirmed
CLEJoey CantilloConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
PIT / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model sees 8.72 total vs market 7.0 — a 1.72-run gap flags structural miss. Skenes (3.57 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 1.02 WHIP) and Cantillo (3.56 ERA, 9.36 K/9...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+110
MILMilwaukee Brewers-130
Pick Probability54%MIL moneyline
MIAEury PérezConfirmed
MILRobert GasserConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
MIL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+105
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-125
Pick Probability54%ARI moneyline
STLAndre PallanteConfirmed
ARIEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-116
ATLAtlanta Braves+100
Pick Probability54%TEX moneyline
TEXNathan EovaldiConfirmed
ATLGrant HolmesConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+105
HOUHouston Astros-125
Pick Probability54%BAL moneyline
BALBrandon YoungConfirmed
HOUHunter BrownConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
BAL / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model leans BAL 54.4%, market nearly even at 51.7% HOU. Extreme pitcher's park (PF 0.81) suppresses totals; model's 9.10 overshoots market 8.5 by 0...

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals-150
OAKOakland Athletics+128
Pick Probability52%WSN moneyline
WSNFoster GriffinConfirmed
OAKJacob LopezConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
WSN / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

WSN's Griffin (2.77 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 110 IP) is a legitimate pitcher facing OAK's league-worst offense (3.5 RPG, .512 OPS). Model at 52.2% vs mark...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+142
CHCChicago Cubs-168
Pick Probability51%CHC moneyline
MINZebby MatthewsConfirmed
CHCShota ImanagaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 10 / Agrees with model

Market has CHC at 60.2% vs model's 51%, a 9-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Model predicts 9.12 total vs market 7.5—that 1.6-run miss is s...

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