MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-07-20 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-07-20
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets+180
MILMilwaukee Brewers-220
Pick Probability64%MIL moneyline
NYMFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
MILJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.6
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Misiorowski's 1.62 ERA and 13.54 K/9 across 111 IP is elite. Model at 64.3% matches Pinnacle's 65.4% implied—no comparison. Peralta's 4.66 ERA and...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays+150
TORToronto Blue Jays-178
Pick Probability61%TOR moneyline
TBRNick MartinezConfirmed
TORDylan CeaseConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has TOR 60.8%, market implies 58.5%—tight alignment. Both starters sub-2.65 ERA over 10 GS each, ace matchup flag fires correctly. Market tot...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+122
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-146
Pick Probability59%ARI moneyline
OAKJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
ARIMitch BrattConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
ARI / pass confidence / Rank 8

Bratt has 6.0 IP across 2 starts (3 IP/start avg) — this is effectively a bullpen game. Springs' 6.08 ERA in 97.7 IP is established poor form, not...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers-105
CHCChicago Cubs-114
Pick Probability59%DET moneyline
DETJack FlahertyConfirmed
CHCJameson TaillonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total11.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors DET by 8 points over market's coin-flip line, triggering disagreement flag. CHC's superior offense (5.3 RPG vs 4.5, .694 OPS vs .582)...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+103
KCRKansas City Royals-123
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
SFGTrevor McDonaldConfirmed
KCRMichael WachaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-07-20
Rank#1
NYM at MILNew York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Agrees with modelMIL / 64%Model pick probability

Misiorowski's 1.62 ERA and 13.54 K/9 across 111 IP is elite. Model at 64.3% matches Pinnacle's 65.4% implied—no comparison. Peralta's 4.66 ERA and weak NYM offense (.7...

Rank#2
TBR at TORTampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
AI Analyst PickTORlean confidence
Agrees with modelTOR / 61%Model pick probability

Model has TOR 60.8%, market implies 58.5%—tight alignment. Both starters sub-2.65 ERA over 10 GS each, ace matchup flag fires correctly. Market total 7.5 vs model 8.45...

Rank#3
DET at CHCDetroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelDET / 59%Model pick probability

Model favors DET by 8 points over market's coin-flip line, triggering disagreement flag. CHC's superior offense (5.3 RPG vs 4.5, .694 OPS vs .582) and home field argue...

Rank#4
STL at LAASt. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels
AI Analyst PickSTLlean confidence
Agrees with modelSTL / 55%Model pick probability

Model and market diverge slightly: model has STL at 54.9%, market implies 49.1% (virtual coin flip). Both pitchers solid (Soriano 3.49 ERA, Leahy 3.73 ERA) in adequate...

Rank#5
PIT at NYYPittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickPITlean confidence
Agrees with modelPIT / 54%Model pick probability

Model likes PIT at 54.3%, market has it near 50/50 (NYY -112). PIT's 6.9 RPG offensive surge is real (100 GP sample), while NYY sits at 4.0 RPG. Ashcraft's 3.49 ERA ov...

Rank#6
CHW at TEXChicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
AI Analyst PickCHWlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTEX / 54%Model pick probability

Model has TEX 54% vs market's 61% — a 7pp gap favoring CHW value. deGrom's 3.49 ERA in 100.7 IP is elite but market overprices TEX at home. Fedde's 4.15 ERA/1.42 WHIP...

Rank#7
SDP at ATLSan Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSDP / 52%Model pick probability

Model has SDP 51.6% but market implies ATL 57.4% — a 5.8pp gap. Model flags offense_defense_mismatch yet picks the worse team (SDP: 49-50, .547 OPS vs ATL: 57-41, .789...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets+180
MILMilwaukee Brewers-220
Pick Probability64%MIL moneyline
NYMFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
MILJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.6
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Misiorowski's 1.62 ERA and 13.54 K/9 across 111 IP is elite. Model at 64.3% matches Pinnacle's 65.4% implied—no comparison. Peralta's 4.66 ERA and...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays+150
TORToronto Blue Jays-178
Pick Probability61%TOR moneyline
TBRNick MartinezConfirmed
TORDylan CeaseConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has TOR 60.8%, market implies 58.5%—tight alignment. Both starters sub-2.65 ERA over 10 GS each, ace matchup flag fires correctly. Market tot...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+122
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-146
Pick Probability59%ARI moneyline
OAKJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
ARIMitch BrattConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
ARI / pass confidence / Rank 8

Bratt has 6.0 IP across 2 starts (3 IP/start avg) — this is effectively a bullpen game. Springs' 6.08 ERA in 97.7 IP is established poor form, not...

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers-105
CHCChicago Cubs-114
Pick Probability59%DET moneyline
DETJack FlahertyConfirmed
CHCJameson TaillonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total11.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors DET by 8 points over market's coin-flip line, triggering disagreement flag. CHC's superior offense (5.3 RPG vs 4.5, .694 OPS vs .582)...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+103
KCRKansas City Royals-123
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
SFGTrevor McDonaldConfirmed
KCRMichael WachaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+125
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-150
Pick Probability55%PHI moneyline
LADEmmet SheehanConfirmed
PHICristopher SánchezConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals-133
COLColorado Rockies+112
Pick Probability55%WSN moneyline
WSNAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
COLKyle FreelandConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total12.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.0
Model pick
WSN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-108
LAALos Angeles Angels-110
Pick Probability55%STL moneyline
STLKyle LeahyConfirmed
LAAJosé SorianoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
STL / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model and market diverge slightly: model has STL at 54.9%, market implies 49.1% (virtual coin flip). Both pitchers solid (Soriano 3.49 ERA, Leahy 3...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+138
BOSBoston Red Sox-162
Pick Probability55%BOS moneyline
BALShane BazConfirmed
BOSPayton TolleConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
BOS moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+125
SEASeattle Mariners-146
Pick Probability55%SEA moneyline
CINAndrew AbbottConfirmed
SEAGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
SEA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-102
NYYNew York Yankees-116
Pick Probability54%PIT moneyline
PITBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
NYYRyan WeathersConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
PIT / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model likes PIT at 54.3%, market has it near 50/50 (NYY -112). PIT's 6.9 RPG offensive surge is real (100 GP sample), while NYY sits at 4.0 RPG. As...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+142
TEXTexas Rangers-168
Pick Probability54%TEX moneyline
CHWErick FeddeConfirmed
TEXJacob deGromConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has TEX 54% vs market's 61% — a 7pp gap favoring CHW value. deGrom's 3.49 ERA in 100.7 IP is elite but market overprices TEX at home. Fedde's...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins-132
CLECleveland Guardians+110
Pick Probability52%MIN moneyline
MINJoe RyanConfirmed
CLETanner BibeeConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
MIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres+112
ATLAtlanta Braves-134
Pick Probability52%SDP moneyline
SDPJP SearsConfirmed
ATLBryce ElderConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has SDP 51.6% but market implies ATL 57.4% — a 5.8pp gap. Model flags offense_defense_mismatch yet picks the worse team (SDP: 49-50, .547 OPS...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+105
HOUHouston Astros-125
Pick Probability51%HOU moneyline
MIAJanson JunkConfirmed
HOURonel BlancoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
HOU moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

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