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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-24 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
COL at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 fanatics / U -145 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +118 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CHC at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +108 betrivers / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanduel / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

KCR at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Beck WayKCR starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalDET starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -120 betmgm / U +104 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 7.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.540%over
O 8.527%over
O 9.518%over
O 10.511%over
O 11.56%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

ARI at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 draftkings / U -142 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Carson PalmquistWSN starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

NYY at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +116 fanduel / U -136 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.523%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K7.7Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +100 betmgm / U -104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 7.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.586%over
O 5.576%over
O 6.563%over
O 7.550%over
O 8.537%over
O 9.525%under
O 10.517%under
O 11.510%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

ATL at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betonlineag / U +120 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 betmgm / U +118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CLE at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 betrivers / U +120 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 4.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shane McClanahanTBR starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betmgm / U -140 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAD at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -150 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.514%over
O 8.58%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +140 betmgm / U -154 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

SDP at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Germán MárquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 fanatics / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -142 draftkings / U +120 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 2.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TOR at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betonlineag / U -136 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Patrick SandovalBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 draftkings / U -142 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

HOU at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 draftkings / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

SEA at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 betmgm / U +117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +122 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

OAK at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob LopezOAK starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +131 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betmgm / U -118 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

CIN at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 draftkings / U -162 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 bovada / U +110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

LAA at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betmgm / U -155 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -160 fanatics / U +140 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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