MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-25 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
BOS at MIA Aug 25, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPayton Tolle BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +115 bovada / U -129 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -132 fanduel / U +110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% over
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TBR at DET Aug 25, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Legumina TBR starter / away
Projected K 2.0 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 58% over
O 2.5 32% under
O 3.5 14% under
O 4.5 5% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Jackson Jobe DET starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +105 betmgm / U -120 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
COL at WSN Aug 25, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Adams COL starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 5 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 60% over
O 3.5 39% over
O 4.5 21% over
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 fanatics / U +111 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
HOU at NYY Aug 25, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEthan Pecko HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 fanduel / U -131 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Will Warren NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +118 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
KCR at TOR Aug 25, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSeth Lugo KCR starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -128 draftkings / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Max Scherzer TOR starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -148 fanduel / U +121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIL at NYM Aug 25, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Harrison MIL starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -108 betonlineag / U +120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zac Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -128 fanduel / U +114 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAD at ATL Aug 25, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Glasnow LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +115 betmgm / U -145 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Bryce Elder ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -138 draftkings / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TEX at CHW Aug 25, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob deGrom TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.2 Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -111 fanduel / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% under
O 3.5 85% under
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Anthony Kay CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 fanduel / U +104 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
BAL at STL Aug 25, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Bassitt BAL starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +110 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% over
O 3.5 43% over
O 4.5 25% over
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -118 fanduel / U -105 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CLE at LAA Aug 25, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGavin Williams CLE starter / away
Projected K 8.8 Actual 3 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +114 fanduel / U -130 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 8.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 99% over
O 3.5 97% under
O 4.5 92% under
O 5.5 85% under
O 6.5 75% under
O 7.5 63% under
O 8.5 50% under
O 9.5 38% under
O 10.5 27% under
O 11.5 19% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Walbert Urena LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betmgm / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PHI at SEA Aug 25, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.4 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 bovada / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 60% over
O 6.5 45% over
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
George Kirby SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 draftkings / U -103 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
PIT at SDP Aug 25, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPaul Skenes PIT starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -151 draftkings / U +122 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Michael King SDP starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -128 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIN at OAK Aug 25, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTaj Bradley MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 fanatics / U -115 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 5% over
O 10.5 2% over
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Gage Jump OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betrivers / U -146 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% over
O 8.5 7% over
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
CHC at ARI Aug 25, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastClay Holmes CHC starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +124 fanduel / U -143 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 29% over
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 fanatics / U -135 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CIN at SFG Aug 25, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrady Singer CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 bovada / U -127 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Adrian Houser SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -136 betrivers / U +125 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.