Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has NYY 55.9%, market implies 55.7% — essentially aligned. Cole's 9.58 K/9 vs Kay's 7.32 K/9 and 1.37 WHIP favors away side. CHW offense (5.2...

Sale's 2.19 ERA over 111 IP vs Scott's 3.13 in 63 IP is a real quality gap despite ace_matchup flag. Market implies ATL 59%, model has 55%—reasonab...

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats; no market data to calibrate against. CLE's Gavin Williams (3.78 ERA, 11.11 K/9) is solid but facing an unk...

STL starter is TBD (fallback data), making both sides and total unreliable. CHC has strong offense (6.4 RPG, .694 OPS) vs STL's weak 3.5 RPG. Marke...

Model leans HOU at 55.2%, market is dead even at 50.5%. Lambert's 3.03 ERA in 98 IP is legitimate, Detmers' 4.05 is adequate. HOU's 4.6 RPG offense...

Market has CIN at 59.7% vs model's CLE 55.1%, a 4.6pp gap favoring home. Burns' 2.42 ERA and 10.37 K/9 over 107.7 IP is elite; Cecconi's 4.60 ERA a...

Model likes TEX at 54.2% but market strongly favors TBR at 61.8%. Away pitcher is TBD fallback—structural uncertainty on TEX side. TBR's 62-43 reco...

Model has MIL 54%, market implies 59% — defensible gap given SFG's poor offense (.388 OPS). Henderson's 11.03 K/9 in 38 IP with 0.94 WHIP is legiti...

Market has SDP at 63% vs model's 54%, an 8.8pp gap. Lorenzen's 6.53 ERA in Petco is exploitable; King's 3.24 ERA is solid but not ace-level. Model...

Model and market perfectly aligned on moneyline (both ~51% ARI). Arizona's 6.1 RPG offense outpaces PIT's 4.0 despite worse OPS, suggesting context...

Model sees TOR 50.8%, market implies WSN 56.2%. WSN offense (7.0 RPG, .820 OPS) vastly outperforms TOR (2.3 RPG, .786 OPS). Cavalli's 3.58 ERA and...