Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has LAD at 64% but market implies 73% — an 8.5pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Ohtani's data is fallback quality (only 6.0 IP logged ove...

Model (64.1%) and market (64.6%) align on CIN. Away pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA) creating structural uncertainty. Burns da...

Both pitchers are fallback data (Yesavage 5.1 IP, Tolle no stats). Model has TOR at 62.9% vs market 51.2% — an 11.7pp gap with zero pitcher context...

Model has NYY at 57% but market is a coin flip (home +105). TEX has Jacob deGrom on the mound—an ace who should suppress NYY's 6.4 RPG offense. Mod...

Model projects 9.12 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.6-run gap flags structural miss. Martinez has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP); Bibee's 5.4 ERA in only 5...

Market heavily favors PHI (-162, 60.5% implied) while model barely leans SFG (55.2%). PHI's 9-19 record and 3.0 RPG are alarming, but model's SHAP...

Model gives CHW 53.5% vs market's 45.2%—an 8.3pp gap triggers the flag. Soriano's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is noise, not signal. Martin has no resolved s...

Model has WSN 53% but market heavily favors NYM at 63% implied. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data limits conviction despite 10 starts each. Model's 9.0...

Model sees a coin flip (50.6% MIN), market leans SEA (52.9% implied). SEA's .793 OPS vs MIN's .673 justifies market position. Ryan's 0.00 ERA in 5....