Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has KCR at 63% vs market coin-flip, driven by Dobnak's 1.86 ERA in 9.7 IP (tiny sample). Canning's 6.47 ERA in 56 IP is real. Market total 11...

Both pitchers are fallback substitutes (Logan Allen and TBD). Model shows CLE at 55.6% vs market's 50% toss-up, but with no actual pitcher data, th...

Model has CLE at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. PIT's 7.0 RPG and .710 OPS are significantly better than C...

Clear comparison to DET. Skubal (3.09 ERA, 10.59 K/9, 0.95 WHIP in 75.7 IP) is elite; Rodriguez (7.55 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 31 IP) is struggling badly....

Model has CIN 54.9%, market nearly even at 49.3% home. Coors inflates the total but model's 11.77 vs market 13.0 is a 1.23-run gap—model sees pitch...

Model favors WSN at 54.9% but market has OAK at 53.3%—a small disagreement flag fires but the gap is actually modest. WSN's 6.9 RPG vs OAK's 2.5 RP...

TBR 56-40 vs BOS 48-48, superior offense (.802 OPS vs .736) despite lower RPG. Sandoval has only 4.3 IP over 10 starts—likely opener role, not trad...

Model sees a coin flip (50.8% TOR), market slightly favors CHW (51.6%). Bieber's 7.64 ERA in 17.7 IP is a real disaster; Martin's 3.41 in 100+ IP i...