Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has MIL 61.9%, market implies 67.3% - market is more bullish. Both pitchers mediocre (Gasser 4.91 ERA, Feltner 5.48 ERA) but American Family...

Model and market align on DET (model 61.4%, Pinnacle 62.3%). Mize's 2.79 ERA over 80.7 IP is legit, but KCR's offense is MLB-worst (.518 OPS). Mode...

Home pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (5.21 ERA, 76 IP); model's moneyline pick (MIN 58.5%) vs market (60.0%) shows thin comparison on unreliable...

Model total of 9.12 vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run gap—the largest structural red flag. PNC Park is neutral (PF 1.06), both pitchers solid (Skenes 3.43...

Model has TEX 54.9% vs market's 48.6% for SEA. SEA's .793 OPS with 3.8 RPG is odd (strong contact, weak scoring). Woo/Eovaldi both ~4.2 ERA; Woo's...

Model has LAD at 54.9%, market implies 61% — meaningful gap. Yamamoto (2.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) vs McLean (3.34 ERA) favors LAD. Ace matchup flag set b...

Model favors CLE 54.4% vs market 44.6%—a 9.8pp gap flagged as large disagreement. CLE offense is weak (.600 OPS, 4.4 RPG) yet model picks them on r...

Model picks CIN at 54.4% vs market 49.1%, a modest 5.3pp comparison. Greene's 14.33 K/9 in only 16.3 IP is elite strikeout stuff but tiny sample wi...

Elite SP matchup: Gray 2.48 ERA, Cease 2.67 ERA with 13.37 K/9. Model has BOS at 54% vs market 50%; margin is trivial (+0.06 runs). Top SHAP featur...

PHI pitcher is TBD with fallback stats. Model leans PHI at 55% vs market 47% — an 8-point gap on unknown starter is structural noise. Extreme park...