Ranked picks with source labels.

Model picks KCR at 55.2% vs market's 47.4% (COL -116). Both pitchers are mediocre (Feltner 5.73 ERA, Avila 4.95 ERA) but model is fading COL too ha...

Model has DET at 55.2%, market at 59.2% (implied from -145). Modest disagreement favors market. Perkins 6.45 ERA vs Valdez 4.53 ERA supports DET, b...

Model has TBR 54.8%, market implies 60.6%. Both pitchers sub-3.20 ERA qualifies ace_matchup. Hicks small sample (31 IP) but 10.45 K/9 real. Market...

Model has LAD 54.8%, market implies 59.5% — meaningful gap favoring Dodgers more than model does. Yamamoto (2.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) vs Tolle (3.32 ERA...

Model favors ARI 54% but market has CLE at 59%. Messick's 2.59 ERA over 125 IP is legitimate; Drake has only 9 IP (2 starts), too small to trust. M...

Model favors HOU 54% vs market's 47% for TEX, a 7-point gap. Blanco's 8.10 ERA in only 10 IP (tiny sample) vs deGrom's 3.67 ERA in 110 IP is a mass...

Model has CHC 54% vs market 49% — small comparison evaporates against Peterson's 5.80 ERA in 95 IP. Fried (3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) is the better start...

Model at 55.2% MIL, market at 53.5% — close agreement. MIL's 5.0 RPG and .972 OPS vs LAA's 3.2 RPG and .860 OPS is substantial. Soriano's 3.29 ERA...

Model has MIN at 50.8% but market has SEA at 60.8%—a 10pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Gilbert's 3.44 ERA over 125.7 IP is solid; Prielipp's...