Ranked picks with source labels.

Market implies 67.9% on ATL; model 63.4%, so no comparison on the favorite but the side is fine. Adams has 1 start and 4.0 IP — that 2.25 ERA is me...

Model's 62.8% on CHC is ~6.5 points above the market's 56.3% implied, and the pitching comparison actually belongs to Cincinnati: Burns at 2.77 ERA...

Thornton (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 56.1 IP) is a meaningful comparison over Pecko, whose 7.88 ERA in 8 IP across 2 starts is too small a sample to...

Model has STL at 59.4% vs market 47.1%, a 12-point gap it can't justify: Liberatore carries a 5.44 ERA and 1.47 WHIP against Ashcraft's 3.59 ERA an...

Market and model agree on Boston, and the pitching gap justifies it: Suarez at 3.35 ERA/1.20 WHIP vs Warren at 4.39/1.42. The offense_defense_misma...

Market prices PHI near 65% while the model sits at 55.4% — the gap is large and I side with the market here. Wheeler (3.40 ERA, 10.71 K/9, 1.09 WHI...

Market implies 62.8% for Cleveland vs model's 53.8% — a 9-point gap I side with the market on. Messick (2.50 ERA, 9.06 K/9, 1.01 WHIP) is a clear c...

Market has LAD near 62% while the model sits at 53.5% — the market looks right here. Glasnow (3.02 ERA, 11.28 K/9, 0.87 WHIP) against a Detroit off...

Model has TOR at 50.9% against a market implying 43.7%, and the pitching gap argues against it: Gilbert carries a 3.36 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.39 K/9...

Market implies 60.6% on TBR vs model's 50.9% — a 10-point gap I side with the market on, given Rasmussen's 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 140.1 IP aga...

Model takes TEX at 50.6% vs market's 40% — a large gap with no support. MIL is 85-51 with .972 OPS and 4.9 RPG; TEX is 66-70 at .698 OPS and 3.5 RP...