MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-03 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-03
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-110
MINMinnesota Twins-110
Pick Probability59%TOR moneyline
TORTrey Yesavage
MINJoe Ryan
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
MIN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors TOR 58.6% but market is dead even (MIN -105). Yesavage data is fallback quality (10 starts, 5.1 IP total impossible—likely aggregation...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+101
PITPittsburgh Pirates-120
Pick Probability59%CIN moneyline
CINChase Burns
PITBraxton Ashcraft
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.5
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model likes CIN at 58.6% vs market's 48%. Both pitchers lack ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—genuine uncertainty. Model's 9.23 total vs market...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-164
COLColorado Rockies+140
Pick Probability59%ATL moneyline
ATLSpencer Strider
COLKyle Freeland
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Strider fallback data (0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP) is obviously incomplete; real signal unclear. ATL's 24-10 record and .789 OPS vs COL's .531 OPS is the cle...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers+100
DETDetroit Tigers-120
Pick Probability59%TEX moneyline
TEXJack Leiter
DETTyler Holton
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
TEX / pass confidence / Rank 10

Tyler Holton has 0.2 IP in 10 'starts' (likely opener role); Jack Leiter has null stats across all categories. Both pitchers effectively have no us...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+105
SEASeattle Mariners-124
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
KCRKris Bubic
SEALuis Castillo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
SEA / pass confidence / Rank 8

Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes this unpickable on moneyline despite Castillo's reputation and T-Mobile's extreme park factor (0.855). Market t...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-03
Rank#1
ATL at COLAtlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Agrees with modelATL / 59%Model pick probability

Strider fallback data (0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP) is obviously incomplete; real signal unclear. ATL's 24-10 record and .789 OPS vs COL's .531 OPS is the cleanest comparison. Co...

Rank#2
CIN at PITCincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
AI Analyst PickCINlean confidence
Agrees with modelCIN / 59%Model pick probability

Model likes CIN at 58.6% vs market's 48%. Both pitchers lack ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—genuine uncertainty. Model's 9.23 total vs market 7.5 is a massive 1....

Rank#3
TOR at MINToronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
AI Analyst PickMINlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTOR / 59%Model pick probability

Model favors TOR 58.6% but market is dead even (MIN -105). Yesavage data is fallback quality (10 starts, 5.1 IP total impossible—likely aggregation error). Ryan's 0.00...

Rank#4
MIL at WSNMilwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelWSN / 58%Model pick probability

Model picks WSN at 57.5% but market has MIL -130 (implied 56.5% MIL). With TBD for MIL starter and missing pitcher stats for both sides, confidence must stay low. MIL'...

Rank#5
ARI at CHCArizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelARI / 53%Model pick probability

Model picks ARI at 53% but market has CHC at 59% (Pinnacle -150). Kelly's data is fallback quality; Boyd's 14.73 ERA in 3.2 IP is tiny sample noise. Model's 9.01 total...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-110
MINMinnesota Twins-110
Pick Probability59%TOR moneyline
TORTrey Yesavage
MINJoe Ryan
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
MIN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors TOR 58.6% but market is dead even (MIN -105). Yesavage data is fallback quality (10 starts, 5.1 IP total impossible—likely aggregation...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+101
PITPittsburgh Pirates-120
Pick Probability59%CIN moneyline
CINChase Burns
PITBraxton Ashcraft
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.5
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model likes CIN at 58.6% vs market's 48%. Both pitchers lack ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—genuine uncertainty. Model's 9.23 total vs market...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-164
COLColorado Rockies+140
Pick Probability59%ATL moneyline
ATLSpencer Strider
COLKyle Freeland
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Strider fallback data (0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP) is obviously incomplete; real signal unclear. ATL's 24-10 record and .789 OPS vs COL's .531 OPS is the cle...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers+100
DETDetroit Tigers-120
Pick Probability59%TEX moneyline
TEXJack Leiter
DETTyler Holton
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
TEX / pass confidence / Rank 10

Tyler Holton has 0.2 IP in 10 'starts' (likely opener role); Jack Leiter has null stats across all categories. Both pitchers effectively have no us...

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+105
SEASeattle Mariners-124
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
KCRKris Bubic
SEALuis Castillo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
SEA / pass confidence / Rank 8

Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes this unpickable on moneyline despite Castillo's reputation and T-Mobile's extreme park factor (0.855). Market t...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+155
SDPSan Diego Padres-186
Pick Probability58%SDP moneyline
CHWAnthony Kay
SDPGriffin Canning
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
SDP / pass confidence / Rank 6

Griffin Canning's data is a fallback (5.0 IP over 10 starts is implausible), making this a structural uncertainty case. Market implies 62.3% SDP vs...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-138
WSNWashington Nationals+115
Pick Probability58%WSN moneyline
MILLogan Henderson
WSNPJ Poulin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks WSN at 57.5% but market has MIL -130 (implied 56.5% MIL). With TBD for MIL starter and missing pitcher stats for both sides, confidence...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-147
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+124
Pick Probability58%STL moneyline
LADJustin Wrobleski
STLDustin May
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
STL / pass confidence / Rank 9

Wrobleski has null stats across all fields—no ERA, no IP, no K/9. May's 13.5 ERA in 4.0 IP is catastrophically small sample. Model likes STL at 57....

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+133
BOSBoston Red Sox-159
Pick Probability57%BOS moneyline
HOUCody Bolton
BOSRanger Suarez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
BOS moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-145
MIAMiami Marlins+122
Pick Probability56%PHI moneyline
PHIJesús Luzardo
MIAChris Paddack
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+110
TBRTampa Bay Rays-128
Pick Probability55%SFG moneyline
SFGTyler Mahle
TBRSteven Matz
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.3
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
SFG / pass confidence / Rank 7

Model picks SFG at 55.2% vs market 45.4% — an 8+ point gap flagged as large disagreement. SFG offense is abysmal (.388 OPS, 2.7 RPG over 33 games)....

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians-120
OAKOakland Athletics+102
Pick Probability55%CLE moneyline
CLEParker Messick
OAKAaron Civale
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
CLE moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-134
LAALos Angeles Angels+112
Pick Probability55%NYM moneyline
NYMClay Holmes
LAAJack Kochanowicz
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+189
NYYNew York Yankees-233
Pick Probability54%NYY moneyline
BALTrey Gibson
NYYMax Fried
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
NYY moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+132
CHCChicago Cubs-158
Pick Probability53%ARI moneyline
ARIMerrill Kelly
CHCMatthew Boyd
Market OddsPregame
Market Total12.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks ARI at 53% but market has CHC at 59% (Pinnacle -150). Kelly's data is fallback quality; Boyd's 14.73 ERA in 3.2 IP is tiny sample noise...