MLB moneyline board.

Model has MIL 54%, market implies 59% — defensible gap given SFG's poor offense (.388 OPS). Henderson's 11.03 K/9 in 38 IP with 0.94 WHIP is legitimate dominance. Orac...

Market has CIN at 59.7% vs model's CLE 55.1%, a 4.6pp gap favoring home. Burns' 2.42 ERA and 10.37 K/9 over 107.7 IP is elite; Cecconi's 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP is expl...

Model has NYY 55.9%, market implies 55.7% — essentially aligned. Cole's 9.58 K/9 vs Kay's 7.32 K/9 and 1.37 WHIP favors away side. CHW offense (5.2 RPG, .729 OPS) sign...

Model and market perfectly aligned on moneyline (both ~51% ARI). Arizona's 6.1 RPG offense outpaces PIT's 4.0 despite worse OPS, suggesting context factors. Pfaadt/Cha...

Model leans HOU at 55.2%, market is dead even at 50.5%. Lambert's 3.03 ERA in 98 IP is legitimate, Detmers' 4.05 is adequate. HOU's 4.6 RPG offense vs LAA's 2.8 suppor...

Market has SDP at 63% vs model's 54%, an 8.8pp gap. Lorenzen's 6.53 ERA in Petco is exploitable; King's 3.24 ERA is solid but not ace-level. Model total of 9.26 vs mar...

Model sees TOR 50.8%, market implies WSN 56.2%. WSN offense (7.0 RPG, .820 OPS) vastly outperforms TOR (2.3 RPG, .786 OPS). Cavalli's 3.58 ERA and 10.33 K/9 are solid....

STL starter is TBD (fallback data), making both sides and total unreliable. CHC has strong offense (6.4 RPG, .694 OPS) vs STL's weak 3.5 RPG. Market agrees at -111 (im...

Model likes TEX at 54.2% but market strongly favors TBR at 61.8%. Away pitcher is TBD fallback—structural uncertainty on TEX side. TBR's 62-43 record and home comparis...