Ranked picks with source labels.

Model sees CHW at 60% but market implies 48.5%, a 12pp gap. DET offense is brutal (3.0 RPG, .582 OPS) but CHW hasn't dominated (29-27). Pitcher sta...

Market at SEA -145 (58.1% implied) vs model 60.2% is tight. T-Mobile (PF 0.855) strongly favors under; model's 8.85 total is 1.85 runs above market...

Model has MIN at 58.6% but market implies PIT 55.6%. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is meaningless tiny sample. Model likely overweighting that nois...

Model has CHC 58.6%, market 56.0% — close alignment. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP is extremely small sample (likely 1-2 bad outings). Pallante miss...

Kolek has no recorded IP/ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts listed — clear data quality issue. Gore's 5.1 IP across 10 starts averages 0.5 IP per outing...

Model predicts 9.08 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.58-run gap triggers the total_far_from_market flag. Both pitchers show early-season struggles (Peralta 7...

Market has TBR at 62.3% vs model's 53.6%—an 8.7pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Model sees this closer to coin flip while market is confident....

Model has OAK at 53.5% vs market 42%, an 11.5pp gap flagged as large disagreement. NYY has far superior offense (4.9 RPG, .692 OPS vs 3.6/.512) and...

Missing all pitcher stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9, IP) and park factor creates unacceptable uncertainty for a side pick. Model and market both see coin fli...