MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-06-09 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-06-09
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-109
TORToronto Blue Jays-110
Pick Probability60%TOR moneyline
PHIZack Wheeler
TORDylan Cease
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
TOR / pass confidence / Rank 11

Wheeler has no season stats (IP/ERA/K9 all null); data_quality='full' is misleading. Cease's 5.1 IP over 10 starts averages 0.5 IP/start—clearly in...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-164
COLColorado Rockies+135
Pick Probability60%CHC moneyline
CHCColin Rea
COLTomoyuki Sugano
Market OddsPregame
Market Total12.5
Projected Total9.7
Margin Context2.0
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Market and model align on CHC (Pinnacle 59.4%, model 60.2%). Model projects 9.71 runs vs market 12.5 — a 2.8-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47) is massive....

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-120
TBRTampa Bay Rays+100
Pick Probability58%TBR moneyline
BOSPayton Tolle
TBRNick Martinez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has TBR 58% but market shows BOS favored at -110 (52.4% implied). Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run structural miss. Neutral park...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-157
CHWChicago White Sox+130
Pick Probability58%ATL moneyline
ATLGrant Holmes
CHWBrandon Eisert
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.1
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-121
CLECleveland Guardians+102
Pick Probability56%NYY moneyline
NYYGerrit Cole
CLESlade Cecconi
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
NYY moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-06-09
Rank#1
MIL at OAKMilwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Agrees with modelMIL / 52%Model pick probability

MIL 41-23 vs OAK 31-35, MIL scoring 8.0 RPG vs 5.1. Market implies 52% MIL, model has 52.2%, tight convergence. Gasser stats missing (data_quality=full but all nulls),...

Rank#2
CHC at COLChicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Agrees with modelCHC / 60%Model pick probability

Market and model align on CHC (Pinnacle 59.4%, model 60.2%). Model projects 9.71 runs vs market 12.5 — a 2.8-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47) is massive. Park factor is the...

Rank#3
BOS at TBRBoston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
AI Analyst PickBOSlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTBR / 58%Model pick probability

Model has TBR 58% but market shows BOS favored at -110 (52.4% implied). Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run structural miss. Neutral park, no ace matchup to...

Rank#4
CIN at SDPCincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickCINlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSDP / 53%Model pick probability

Model has SDP 53.4%, market has CIN 54% — essentially a coin flip. Model's 9.2 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap, triggering the far-from-market flag. Petco suppres...

Rank#5
ARI at MIAArizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
AI Analyst PickMIAlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelARI / 53%Model pick probability

Model predicts 9.05 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.55-run gap triggering the far-from-market flag. Both starters show alarming recent stats: Meyer 5.4 ERA in 5 IP, Gallen 9.0...

Rank#6
STL at NYMSt. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
AI Analyst PickSTLlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelNYM / 54%Model pick probability

Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.6-run gap triggering total_far_from_market. Both starters have terrible ERAs (Peralta 7.2, May 13.5) but extremely small sa...

Rank#7
MIN at DETMinnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
AI Analyst PickMINlean confidence
Agrees with modelMIN / 55%Model pick probability

Model favors MIN 55.2% vs market 45.9% (large disagreement flag). Bradley's 2.08 ERA with 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is micro-sample noise; Melton's missing stats suggest fal...

Rank#8
WSN at SFGWashington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
AI Analyst PickWSNlean confidence
Agrees with modelWSN / 55%Model pick probability

Model leans WSN 55.2% vs market 48.6% — a 6.6pp comparison but with missing pitcher stats (ERA/K9/WHIP null for both starters). Oracle Park factor 0.906 should suppres...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-109
TORToronto Blue Jays-110
Pick Probability60%TOR moneyline
PHIZack Wheeler
TORDylan Cease
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
TOR / pass confidence / Rank 11

Wheeler has no season stats (IP/ERA/K9 all null); data_quality='full' is misleading. Cease's 5.1 IP over 10 starts averages 0.5 IP/start—clearly in...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-164
COLColorado Rockies+135
Pick Probability60%CHC moneyline
CHCColin Rea
COLTomoyuki Sugano
Market OddsPregame
Market Total12.5
Projected Total9.7
Margin Context2.0
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Market and model align on CHC (Pinnacle 59.4%, model 60.2%). Model projects 9.71 runs vs market 12.5 — a 2.8-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47) is massive....

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-120
TBRTampa Bay Rays+100
Pick Probability58%TBR moneyline
BOSPayton Tolle
TBRNick Martinez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has TBR 58% but market shows BOS favored at -110 (52.4% implied). Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run structural miss. Neutral park...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-157
CHWChicago White Sox+130
Pick Probability58%ATL moneyline
ATLGrant Holmes
CHWBrandon Eisert
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.1
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-121
CLECleveland Guardians+102
Pick Probability56%NYY moneyline
NYYGerrit Cole
CLESlade Cecconi
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
NYY moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-122
BALBaltimore Orioles+103
Pick Probability55%SEA moneyline
SEALogan Gilbert
BALTrevor Rogers
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
SEA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+110
DETDetroit Tigers-128
Pick Probability55%MIN moneyline
MINTaj Bradley
DETTroy Melton
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
MIN / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model favors MIN 55.2% vs market 45.9% (large disagreement flag). Bradley's 2.08 ERA with 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is micro-sample noise; Melton's missi...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-125
KCRKansas City Royals+105
Pick Probability55%TEX moneyline
TEXNathan Eovaldi
KCRStephen Kolek
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals-108
SFGSan Francisco Giants-110
Pick Probability55%WSN moneyline
WSNAndrew Alvarez
SFGAdrian Houser
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
WSN / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model leans WSN 55.2% vs market 48.6% — a 6.6pp comparison but with missing pitcher stats (ERA/K9/WHIP null for both starters). Oracle Park factor...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+110
NYMNew York Mets-132
Pick Probability54%NYM moneyline
STLDustin May
NYMFreddy Peralta
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
STL / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.6-run gap triggering total_far_from_market. Both starters have terrible ERAs (Peralta 7.2, May 13.5) bu...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros-125
LAALos Angeles Angels+105
Pick Probability54%LAA moneyline
HOUKai-Wei Teng
LAAWalbert Ureña
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
LAA / pass confidence / Rank 10

Both pitchers show 0.00 ERA but with only 1.2 IP (Ureña) and 2.1 IP (Teng) of season data—these are openers or bulk relievers, not traditional star...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds-135
SDPSan Diego Padres+114
Pick Probability53%SDP moneyline
CINChase Burns
SDPLucas Giolito
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has SDP 53.4%, market has CIN 54% — essentially a coin flip. Model's 9.2 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap, triggering the far-from-market...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+100
PITPittsburgh Pirates-120
Pick Probability53%LAD moneyline
LADEric Lauer
PITPaul Skenes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
LAD / pass confidence / Rank 9

Skenes has 0.2 IP this season (67.5 ERA, 9.0 WHIP) - clearly injured or just returned. Lauer's 5.1 IP sample is also microscopic. Both pitcher prof...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+118
MIAMiami Marlins-140
Pick Probability53%ARI moneyline
ARIZac Gallen
MIAMax Meyer
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
MIA / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model predicts 9.05 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.55-run gap triggering the far-from-market flag. Both starters show alarming recent stats: Meyer 5.4 ERA...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-110
OAKOakland Athletics-110
Pick Probability52%MIL moneyline
MILRobert Gasser
OAKJ.T. Ginn
Market OddsPregame
Market Total13.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

MIL 41-23 vs OAK 31-35, MIL scoring 8.0 RPG vs 5.1. Market implies 52% MIL, model has 52.2%, tight convergence. Gasser stats missing (data_quality=...

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