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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-23 / 32 starters
Market
Lines
WSN at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Richard LoveladyWSN starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%under
O 2.535%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +127 draftkings / U -154 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

TOR at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Max ScherzerTOR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Chris BassittBAL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -164 fanduel / U +128 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MIN at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Cesar PerdomoSFG starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -102 fanduel / U -123 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TOR at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
CJ Van EykTOR starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Trey GibsonBAL starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 betmgm / U +110 betmgm1 book at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%over
O 5.514%over
O 6.56%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

STL at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 betonlineag / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K2.0Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%over
O 2.532%under
O 3.514%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MIL at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 draftkings / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

TBR at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mason EnglertTBR starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 betonlineag / U -105 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 4.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.514%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

CLE at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

CIN at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -136 draftkings / U +113 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.516%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K8.4Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 bovada / U -133 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 7.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.596%over
O 4.591%over
O 5.583%over
O 6.572%over
O 7.559%over
O 8.547%over
O 9.534%over
O 10.524%under
O 11.516%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

CHW at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryan HudsonCHW starter / away
Projected K1.8Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.552%under
O 2.526%under
O 3.511%under
O 4.54%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 draftkings / U -123 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIA at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -146 draftkings / U +120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -134 draftkings / U +118 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

NYM at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Cody BradfordTEX starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -158 fanduel / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.574%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

ARI at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -138 fanduel / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Mason AdamsCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 fanatics / U -127 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%over
O 6.58%over
O 7.53%over
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

LAA at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 draftkings / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.574%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

HOU at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ethan PeckoHOU starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 draftkings / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 fanduel / U +115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Robbie RaySDP starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +114 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -104 fanduel / U -108 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%under
O 5.562%under
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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