Ranked picks with source labels.

Model likes TBR at 60.2% vs market's 56.1% — a 4pp comparison. But Matz (7.20 ERA, 3.6 K/9 in 50 IP) is getting torched, and DET's away opponent wi...

Model has STL at 60% while market is coin flip. Both starters have ERAs north of 9.00 in tiny samples (4-4.7 IP), making these fallback-quality sta...

Model projects 9.04 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.54 run gap triggers total_far_from_market flag. Away pitcher Gage Jump has 1 career start with no reso...

Model has HOU at 60% but market says coin flip (50.7%). Bubba Chandler's stats are entirely missing—data_quality says 'full' but IP/ERA/K9/WHIP are...

Model has NYY 58%, market implies 68% — a 10-point gap flags structural miss. CLE offense is league-worst at 2.4 RPG but model sees comparison via...

Away pitcher is TBD so model is using fallback stats; total prediction is structurally unreliable. T-Mobile Park factor of 0.855 argues under vs ma...

Model favors BAL at 55.2%, market implies BOS at 55.4%—essential agreement with sides flipped. Early's 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP is extreme small sample n...

Model favors KCR at 55.2% vs market 46.9%, flagging large disagreement. Away pitcher Noah Cameron has null stats across ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 star...

Model gives SFG 55% despite 23-37 record vs MIL 36-21; market strongly disagrees at 65% MIL. Missing pitcher stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9 all null) make t...

Market favors LAD at 52.4% implied, model has ARI at 53.6%. LAD's .743 OPS and 5.8 RPG dwarf ARI's .564 OPS and 4.5 RPG. Soroka's null ERA/IP sugge...

Model picks TOR 53% but market has ATL -125 (54% implied). ATL is 40-20 vs TOR 29-31, and ATL's 4.9 RPG offense at home is stronger. Gausman's 1.50...