Ranked picks with source labels.

Model at 64.2% vs market 60.8% on PHI is modest disagreement. Phillips' 1.86 ERA in 48 IP is likely regressing; Luzardo's 4.35 ERA more sustainable...

Model has WSN 62.4% vs market 55.8%, a 6.6pp gap favoring home. Both pitchers solid (Griffin 3.46 ERA, Wacha 3.58 ERA in 78-88 IP). WSN offense muc...

Model at 62.4% vs market 63.5% is tight convergence on CHC. COL's 6.1 RPG inflated by Coors home splits; road offense likely weaker. Both starters...

Model at 62.4% vs market 58.6% on SEA — modest comparison. Gilbert's 3.62 ERA over 79.7 IP is trustworthy; Young's 3.04 in 56.3 IP is solid but les...

Model favors CIN at 55.5% vs market 47.1%, an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Singer's 5.61 ERA in 61 IP is stable mediocrity; Seng...

Model favors CHW 51.5% but market has NYY at 56.6% — a classic model-market split. Both Cole (2.45 ERA) and Martin (2.41 ERA, 78 IP) qualify as ace...

TOR pitcher is TBD/fallback (4.57 ERA across recent starters); model leans BOS at 56.9% vs market 47.2% — a 9.7pp gap on incomplete data. Model pre...

Model has CLE 51% but market heavily favors MIL at 58.5%. Milwaukee's 7.8 RPG and .972 OPS vs Cleveland's 3.1 RPG offense is stark. Gasser's 6.38 E...

Model sees coin flip (MIN 51.1%) but market leans TEX (54.8% implied). Rocker's 3.56 ERA over 65.7 IP vs Matthews' 5.20 ERA in 36.3 IP is a meaning...

Model has PIT 51%, market has OAK 56% — I side with market. OAK's 6.6 RPG vs PIT's 3.6 RPG offense is stark despite similar records. Perkins' 6.25...

Market favors LAD 58.6% vs model's TBR 51.1%. Ace matchup (both sub-3 ERA) argues tight game and under 8.0. Model sees LAD short home xwOBA strengt...

Model has SFG at 51% but market strongly favors ATL at 60%. ATL is 46-25, SFG is 29-43 with a bizarre 5.8 RPG paired with .388 OPS—data quality iss...