Ranked picks with source labels.

Model (67.9%) and market (67.2%) converge on NYY, so no independent comparison, but Schlittler's 2.19 ERA and 11.19 K/9 justify the side. Toronto's...

Model at 61.3% vs market 53.5% on BAL, and the flag is fair: TBR is 76-51 with .802 OPS vs BAL's .662 and 61-67. Peralta's 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP i...

Both model (57%) and market (62.3%) favor Boston; the gap means limited value at -175, but BOS's 5.2 RPG and .736 OPS against a Giants offense at 2...

Model leans KCR at 53.7% versus market 48.1%, driven largely by away-pitcher rolling-window features. Melton's 1.49 ERA and 0.96 WHIP against Camer...

Market prices HOU at 62.5% while the model has 53.7%; the pitching matchup supports the lower number, with Ginn at 3.53 ERA over 127.3 IP against W...

Market's -143 on ARI (57.7%) looks better calibrated than the model's 53.7%; Rodriguez at 2.71 ERA over 149.3 IP is the clear comparison over Lodol...

Model's 53.3% on WSN sits ~11 points off the market's 57.9% for Miami, and it's backing the team with the worse record (61-68) and lower scoring ra...

Model likes LAA at 53.3% while market implies 56.8% TEX — a ~10pt gap. Detmers (3.78 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.5 K/9) does grade out ahead of Gore (4.45 E...

Model splits at 50.5% on NYM despite CHW's better record (66-61 vs 58-70) and the better starter: Burke 3.15 ERA/1.11 WHIP vs Manaea 4.22/1.32. Tha...