Ranked picks with source labels.

CHC pick aligns with model (58.3%) and market (54%). Away pitcher is fallback (TBD/team avg), making total unreliable despite model at 9.16 vs mark...

Model has CLE at 58.3%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. CLE offense is weak (1.5 RPG, .600 OPS) but CHW worse recently per short-window f...

BOS at -161 (61% implied) vs model 58% is reasonable convergence. Freeland's 7.36 ERA in 66 IP is not park-noise—he's been bad. Suarez 2.93 ERA, 1....

Market has PIT at 51.5%, model has SEA at 58.3%—a 6.8pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Both pitchers are competent (Ashcraft 3.18 ERA, Woo 3.94...

Model and market align on PHI (58% vs implied 56%). Both starters struggling: Mikolas 5.47 ERA, Nola 5.71 ERA over ~75 IP each. WSN offense slightl...

Market and model align on MIL favorite (model 58.3%, market 57%). Drohan shows better peripherals (3.40 ERA, 8.87 K/9, 1.17 WHIP) vs Lowder (4.82 E...

Away pitcher is fallback data (Bratt has no season stats); model picking ARI at 58% vs market's ~48% STL. Offense-defense mismatch flag fires (ARI...

Model has OAK at 58.3%, market at 55.4%—modest comparison. Mahle's 6.04 ERA in 56.7 IP is real; SFG offense at .388 OPS is historically bad. Oracle...

Model favors MIA 54.6% but market slightly prefers TEX at 52.3%. DeGrom's 3.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP vs Pérez's 4.60 ERA tips toward TEX. Both starters...

Model has TBR 54%, market 57%—reasonable convergence. TBR's 1.5 RPG is anomalously low for 76 games with .802 OPS; regression probable. Model total...

Model has LAD at 53.4%, market at 61.7% — an 8.3pp gap flags structural miss. Ohtani (1.47 ERA, 0.88 WHIP in 73.7 IP) vs Ryan (2.99 ERA, 1.0 WHIP i...

Home pitcher JP Sears has fallback data quality—model is substituting team stats, not his actual performance. ATL has better record (46-32 vs 38-40...

Model has LAA 51.7% vs market 53.5%—near consensus coin flip. BAL offense is anemic (1.1 RPG, .662 OPS) but LAA's 1.4 RPG is also bottom-tier. Gibs...