Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has ATL 57.6%, market implies 55.0% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA qualifies ace_matchup; Truist PF 0.915 suppresses offens...

Model likes MIL at 57.6% but market is stronger at 60.2%. CIN offense (4.2 RPG, .629 OPS) is thin but Abbott (3.90 ERA, 90 IP) is the more proven s...

BAL pitcher is TBD fallback (team's recent starter proxy). CHW's Schultz has only 38.7 IP, 5.82 ERA in 8 starts—small sample noise. Model and marke...

Model favors KCR at 55.9% but market has TBR as -129 favorite (56.4% implied). Model is picking the worse team (35-50 vs 48-33) with worse offense...

Model predicts 9.75 runs vs market 12.0 — a 2.25-run gap flags structural disagreement. CHC offense (7.2 RPG, .694 OPS) is real but Buehler (3.81 E...

Wheeler (2.03 ERA) vs Skenes (3.10 ERA) is an ace matchup but market total at 8.0 underprices the extreme hitter park (PF 1.15). Model's 9.12 total...

Model has OAK 53% but market implies LAD 61%; LAD is 55-30 vs OAK 40-45 with 5.6 RPG vs 4.6. Away pitcher is fallback (TBD/team avg 4.84 ERA) makin...

Model has COL 53% despite 33-52 record vs MIA 45-40. Market heavily favors MIA (61% implied) which makes more sense given Meyer's 2.6 ERA vs Freela...