Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has SFG at 60.7% vs market 57.7% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers are struggling (Mahle 5.70 ERA, Freeland 7.46 ERA) in extreme pitcher pa...

Model likes SDP at 60.7% but market is dead even (50.7% implied). The 10-point gap triggers market_disagreement_large. Top SHAP features are all TO...

Market has LAD at 71% vs model's 61%, a 10-point gap. Yamamoto's 2.49 ERA in 104 IP is elite; Pfaadt's 4.84 in 48 IP is exploitable. Market likely...

Model and market align closely: MIN -168 implies 62.7% vs model's 60.0%. Joe Ryan's 2.85 ERA over 104 IP is elite, Johnson's 6.99 ERA in 28 IP is e...

Model likes CHW at 60% but market is dead even (50/50). The 10-point gap triggers market_disagreement_large but neither team stands out: CHW is 48-...

Model has MIA 59.8%, market 57.4% — modest agreement favoring home. MIA offense (6.7 RPG, .774 OPS) vs CLE (4.2 RPG, .600 OPS) is a real comparison...

Model has PHI at 57% vs market's 56%, essentially aligned. Ace matchup flag fires (Mize 2.64 ERA, Sánchez 2.62 ERA) but model total 8.63 runs excee...

Model has TEX 56% but market is nearly flat (52% implied). Lambert's 3.26 ERA in 80 IP with better K/9 and WHIP than Rocker gives HOU the pitching...

Model's coin-flip call (50.0% WSN) misses the pitcher quality gap. Schlittler: 2.01 ERA, 10.53 K/9 over 112 IP is legitimate dominance. Mikolas: 5....

Model likes PIT 52.7% but market has MIL -125 (55.6% implied). MIL is 59-34 vs PIT 47-47; record gap supports market view. Drohan's 2.97 ERA in 63....

Model favors STL 52.7% vs market ATL 52.9%—essentially a toss-up. Liberatore's 5.34 ERA in 87.7 IP is concerning against ATL's 6.2 RPG offense. Lóp...