MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-20 / 28 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Cristopher Sánchez PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.9
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 92%
O 3.5 83%
O 4.5 69%
O 5.5 53%
O 6.5 38%
O 7.5 25%
O 8.5 15%
O 9.5 9%
O 10.5 5%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jonah Tong NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.5
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93%
O 2.5 82%
O 3.5 65%
O 4.5 47%
O 5.5 31%
O 6.5 18%
O 7.5 10%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Michael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.9
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 85%
O 3.5 70%
O 4.5 53%
O 5.5 36%
O 6.5 22%
O 7.5 13%
O 8.5 7%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Lake Bachar PIT starter / home
Projected K 3.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79%
O 2.5 57%
O 3.5 35%
O 4.5 19%
O 5.5 9%
O 6.5 4%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Patrick Sandoval BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.1
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91%
O 2.5 77%
O 3.5 59%
O 4.5 40%
O 5.5 24%
O 6.5 13%
O 7.5 7%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Griffin Jax TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.3
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 89%
O 3.5 76%
O 4.5 60%
O 5.5 44%
O 6.5 29%
O 7.5 18%
O 8.5 10%
O 9.5 5%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jack Perkins OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.6
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 67%
O 4.5 49%
O 5.5 32%
O 6.5 19%
O 7.5 11%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Gavin Williams CLE starter / home
Projected K 9.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100%
O 2.5 99%
O 3.5 97%
O 4.5 93%
O 5.5 86%
O 6.5 77%
O 7.5 66%
O 8.5 53%
O 9.5 41%
O 10.5 30%
O 11.5 21%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Rhett Lowder CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.1
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91%
O 2.5 76%
O 3.5 58%
O 4.5 39%
O 5.5 23%
O 6.5 13%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Martín Pérez ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Hunter Brown HOU starter / home
Projected K 6.4
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 95%
O 3.5 87%
O 4.5 75%
O 5.5 61%
O 6.5 46%
O 7.5 32%
O 8.5 21%
O 9.5 13%
O 10.5 7%
O 11.5 4%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Troy Melton DET starter / away
Projected K 4.4
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93%
O 2.5 80%
O 3.5 63%
O 4.5 44%
O 5.5 28%
O 6.5 16%
O 7.5 8%
O 8.5 4%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Davis Martin CHW starter / home
Projected K 3.1
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80%
O 2.5 59%
O 3.5 37%
O 4.5 20%
O 5.5 10%
O 6.5 4%
O 7.5 2%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jake Irvin WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Quinn Mathews STL starter / home
Projected K 5.2
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 88%
O 3.5 75%
O 4.5 59%
O 5.5 42%
O 6.5 27%
O 7.5 16%
O 8.5 9%
O 9.5 5%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Spencer Miles TOR starter / away
Projected K 2.8
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76%
O 2.5 53%
O 3.5 31%
O 4.5 16%
O 5.5 7%
O 6.5 3%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.1
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 93%
O 3.5 84%
O 4.5 71%
O 5.5 56%
O 6.5 41%
O 7.5 28%
O 8.5 17%
O 9.5 10%
O 10.5 6%
O 11.5 3%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kade Anderson SEA starter / away
Projected K 3.9
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89%
O 2.5 73%
O 3.5 54%
O 4.5 35%
O 5.5 20%
O 6.5 10%
O 7.5 5%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Tomoyuki Sugano COL starter / home
Projected K 4.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Dean Kremer MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.5
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 63%
O 5.5 46%
O 6.5 31%
O 7.5 19%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Ryan Johnson LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.6
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93%
O 2.5 82%
O 3.5 66%
O 4.5 47%
O 5.5 31%
O 6.5 18%
O 7.5 10%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Sandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.1
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91%
O 2.5 77%
O 3.5 59%
O 4.5 40%
O 5.5 24%
O 6.5 13%
O 7.5 7%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Walker Buehler SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 55%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 11%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Matt Wilkinson SFG starter / away
Projected K 2.5
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 70%
O 2.5 44%
O 3.5 24%
O 4.5 11%
O 5.5 4%
O 6.5 2%
O 7.5 0%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Will Warren NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.2
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92%
O 2.5 78%
O 3.5 60%
O 4.5 41%
O 5.5 25%
O 6.5 14%
O 7.5 7%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Corbin Burnes ARI starter / home
Projected K 5.5
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 63%
O 5.5 46%
O 6.5 31%
O 7.5 20%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jacob Misiorowski MIL starter / away
Projected K 7.6
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99%
O 2.5 98%
O 3.5 93%
O 4.5 86%
O 5.5 75%
O 6.5 62%
O 7.5 49%
O 8.5 36%
O 9.5 25%
O 10.5 16%
O 11.5 10%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Brandon Young BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.8
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 85%
O 3.5 69%
O 4.5 52%
O 5.5 35%
O 6.5 21%
O 7.5 12%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.