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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-29 / 32 starters
Market
Lines
PHI at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +126 fanduel / U -119 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%under
O 6.549%under
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +108 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ARI at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 betonlineag / U +120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -158 fanduel / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TOR at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zack LittellWSN starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -143 betrivers / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 2.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

ATL at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -112 betrivers / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +127 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

BAL at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 bovada / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalDET starter / home
Projected K8.1Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +102 betrivers / U +100 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 8.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.589%over
O 5.580%over
O 6.568%under
O 7.555%under
O 8.541%under
O 9.530%under
O 10.520%under
O 11.513%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Thomas PannoneMIL starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 draftkings / U -135 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

COL at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -125 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kyle HartSDP starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TEX at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -144 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Casey LeguminaTBR starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

ATL at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Chris SaleATL starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +110 betmgm / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 7.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 fanatics / U -130 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CLE at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betmgm / U -138 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanatics / U -106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%under
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

KCR at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +103 betonlineag / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 2.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betrivers / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYY at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +100 bovada / U -107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 fanatics / U +115 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CHC at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 fanatics / U -132 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +107 betrivers / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

HOU at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 draftkings / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -142 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

BOS at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -107 betrivers / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jacob LopezOAK starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%over
O 6.58%over
O 7.54%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

SEA at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Eric LauerLAD starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 fanduel / U -159 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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