TBR at PHI

Model (64.2%) and market (60.8%) agree on Philadelphia, and the pitching comparison is real: Sánchez at 2.93 ERA / 9.95 K9 over 200 IP versus Peral...

Model's 61.2% on SEA is 8+ points above the market's 52.9% without a clear justification; Detmers (3.47 ERA, 10.26 K/9, 1.05 WHIP) is the better st...

Model (52.6%) sits under the market's 55.9% on NYY, so no comparison on the side; NYY's 5.4 RPG vs BAL's 3.4 RPG and .662 OPS still favors the home...

Market is a coin flip (-102/-108) and the model's 54.8% CHC comparison is small; Chicago's 88-71 record and Peterson's 8.23 K/9 give a marginal nod...

Model takes MIN despite worse record (75-84 vs 79-80) and worse offense (3.8 RPG, .673 OPS vs 4.4, .698) — the mismatch flag is a red flag. Market...

Model leans BOS at 52.6% while market implies 46.7%, and the offense_defense_mismatch flag fits: Chicago has the better record (88-71 vs 85-74) and...

NYY at 92-67 and 5.4 RPG against a 78-81 BAL club scoring 3.4 RPG is a clear talent gap, and Brandon Young's 1.36 WHIP with 7.54 K/9 doesn't projec...

WSN carries the clear offensive comparison (.820 OPS, 4.7 RPG vs NYM's .736 and 3.9) plus home field, so the model's 52.6% looks conservative. But...

Model has MIA at 52.6% despite ATL's 93-66 record and better OPS (.789 vs .774); that comparison looks thin. Atlanta's starter is TBD with fallback...

Model has SFG at 52.6% vs market 23.4% — a 29-point gap it cannot justify. Skubal (2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.4 K/9) faces a 3.7 RPG Giants offense, w...